Why did Diorama go bankrupt? Why was DreamWorks split? Why was Xinyi Film acquired? Why did Lionsgate Film enter a development bottleneck?

The reasons are all: without huge funds as a backing, once a continuous work fails, the capital chain will be out of stock. This is also the fundamental reason why film companies are unable to become stronger. Wall Street, hidden behind Hollywood, is the real chess player.

But similarly, why can DreamWorks last for ten years? Why did MGM last for more than half a century before going bankrupt? Why did New Line Film once ranked among the eight major film companies? Why can Lionsgate Film become the seventh largest player to disrupt the situation?

The reasons are also one: continuous production of excellent, excellent and profitable works. This is also why film companies are like grasslands blowing in spring. Even if the six major film companies control more than 70% or even 80% of the market, small and medium-sized companies other than them are still a force that cannot be ignored in Hollywood.

The advantage of Chaos Pictures is that they have Lance, and all four consecutive works have achieved profitability and are booming; the disadvantage of Chaos Pictures is that they have no original accumulation and only complete the accumulation through film works, it is almost impossible to step closer.

The inspiration that flashed through Lance's mind just now was not Marvel Comics, but the speedup method of primitive accumulation. Ian mentioned the idea of ​​Chaos Pictures to acquire the new market Pictures, which made Lance realize for the first time that Chaos Pictures has now had a certain amount of accumulation. If the opportunity can be accurately grasped, it is not impossible to accelerate the original accumulation.

It's like a European Cup bet.

"Ian, what do you think of the real estate industry now?" Lance did not answer Gao Wen's question, but instead raised another question that was completely inseparable.

Ian frowned slightly, a little confused, but he still replied, "It's very good. No, it should be said that it's prosperous. If we buy our villa a month later, the price will rise by fifteen percent."

Lance looked up at the quiet and simple villa, and slightly pointed his chin, "But what if I say, the real estate market will collapse soon?"

Not to mention Ian, even Theo showed a surprised expression. Gao Wen widened his eyes and said hesitantly, "Lance, are you sure you are not talking nonsense?"

This made Lance chuckle. He couldn't blame Gao Wen for his doubts, because in history, only four groups of people saw the truth. Among so many financial talents in the United States and even the world, only four groups of people saw through the truth.

In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States, and the real estate bubble evaporated overnight, which even led to the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, Lehman Brothers, and had to file for bankruptcy protection. This financial crisis not only caused the United States to suffer a heavy blow, but also the global economy regressed, so that Europe and Japan had to join forces with the US government to rescue the market. Even so, this still became the most serious and painful financial crisis in the United States since the Great Depression in the 1930s, and the global financial system has been greatly affected, including China.

If you want to explain this financial crisis clearly, many professional words will be involved. Before rebirth, Lance once watched a movie at the American Film Society Film Festival. "Big Short" explained the entire process in an easy-to-understand manner. In addition, movies such as "guarding and stealing", "big but not falling", and "interest storm" also told the crisis from different angles.

Simply put, everyone thinks that real estate is booming, but four groups of people think that real estate will collapse, so they buy insurance - if real estate develops well, they must continue to invest money and continue to "insurance"; but once real estate collapses, they will receive compensation and win huge profits.

In the last life, four groups of people discovered signs of real estate collapse around 2005 and 2006, so they started to "insurance", but the real estate was very strong, causing them to keep betting, as if they were tied to a high-speed train, either to pieces or gritted their teeth and pushing them down. But in the end, they succeeded. In August 2007, the real estate bubble appeared and collapsed in a full-scale world, and the world was wailing. They made a big profit. Michael Bry (the first to smell the truth) won more than 500% of the profit.

Lance hopes to quickly complete the original accumulation through this global financial crisis and gain enough voice for Chaos Pictures in the form of Wall Street.

Lance knew that his knowledge was limited and it was a fantasy to explain the entire subprime mortgage crisis clearly. So he asked Ian to explain the current mortgage system in the United States, and then Lance explained it.

Simply put, everyone needs to borrow money when buying a house, but the amount of a single loan is too risky, so some people thought of bundling the debts of a batch of housing loans as bonds to others - for example, financial institutions like Lehman Brothers, and large banks like Deutsche Bank, this scale reduces transaction costs and disperses risks, which is called mbs.

Gradually, loans with good credit were sold in packages, so they focused on loans with bad credit. In order to sell mbs of bad loans, smart bankers invented CDO, which means packaging loans with bad credit into CDO, and then divided into two forms of debt. The interest rate of grade A is low and the interest rate of grade B is high. If there is a default, the B is first lost, and then the A is lost after the B is lost, and then sold to investors with different risk preferences respectively.

In order to ensure the sales of B-level debt, major banks and financial institutions guaranteed their own guarantees, and then found rating agencies to evaluate aaa, which became an excellent and good product. Later, loans with bad credit were sold out, so banks began to sell cdo cdo, and only treated cdo as loans to reorganize and package, recycle, recycle, and recycle.

A 50 million housing loan may be accompanied by one billion or two billion derivative bonds.

Such a system has not had any problems for many years, and has created a scene of increasing prosperity in real estate - because even people without credit, no one will carefully review it and directly give them loans, so everyone can buy a house.

However, at the bottom, the uncredible person has no source of income, and it is very likely that he will default and cannot afford to pay the loan. When there are more defaults, the bottom bonds cannot be collected, and then they will spread like a virus, and the above bonds will begin to be destroyed bit by bit, and the entire market will collapse.

On the other hand, if a loan defaults, the house will be confiscated and auctioned by the bank, increasing the supply of the housing market and lowering the housing prices. This situation gradually increases. Those who originally planned to repay the loan found that their housing prices had fallen to a baseline lower than the loan, so they simply gave up repaying the loan and gave up the house. As a result, the house was confiscated and entered the housing market, further lowering the housing prices. Finally, the real estate bubble disappeared overnight and countless people were homeless.

The reason why Lehman Brothers went bankrupt was because they held too many cdos and also made too many guarantees for cdos.

Lance's explanation Ian reacted immediately. After all, he was an expert. Theo and Gao Wen also looked clear, but Ian asked first, "But why didn't the banks notice it? Those investment banks did not notice it either?"

In fact, that is, why are banks willing to lend to those who can’t afford to pay back? Why do investment banks take over or guarantee bad loans?

"Because the commission chain is too long, there are more than a dozen layers of space between the people who make loan decisions and the people who take risks. The separation of responsibilities and risks has led to them making wrong judgments." Lance tried hard to organize more effective language, but found that things were not that simple. After all, this was not his profession. He thought for a while, "Let me say this, today I want to buy a villa in Napa Valley, but in fact I don't have a penny, I don't have a job, nor do I have a family property, so will anyone give me a loan? Yes, because the person who received me was just a small staff member at the bottom. In the current booming real estate, the bonds that were loaned can be sold to other people, banks, and investment banks. They are willing to take over. In other words, they can recover the money and interest on the spot. After the credit goes bankrupt, they cannot pay back the loan, which has nothing to do with them."

Ian wanted to say something, but found that he was too exhausted and was stunned. His brain couldn't turn around for a while, mainly because they had too much professional knowledge in their heads and were too confident about the current situation of real estate in the United States. Theo was the same, and fell into deep thought. Instead, Gao Wen asked a question first, "What about those investment banks? Why are they willing to guarantee those CDOs with poor credit? Can't they discover it either? Don't do market research?"

Ian closed his eyes and shook his head with a wry smile, "The investment bank reads data. Although the interest rate is high, the default rate is very low, and the risk is naturally low." The reason for the low default rate is that in order to successfully obtain a loan, the lender created a floating interest rate. The interest rate in the first two years was very low, so it is naturally not easy to default. After the interest rate rises, he left.

Therefore, this has caused such a situation. According to the data, the default rate is very low, and investment banks are willing to guarantee those CDOs with bad credit; banks can transfer risks to investment banks and at the same time can drive liquidity. They are not only willing to make loans, but also actively support loans; so those with bad credit and even without credit can successfully buy a house.

Ian let out a long sigh, leaned on the back of the chair, shook his head sighingly, as if he couldn't believe that such a huge financial loophole was actually seen by Lance; he seemed to be unable to believe that what Lance said was very likely to be the fact. For a moment, there was a mixture of emotions.

Theo, who was sitting aside, never spoke. He thought for a long time and raised his head, "So, you want us to short." This is a positive sentence, not a question.

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Chapter completed!