Chapter 18 Mushroom Cloud
Hirohito looked at Yang Rui from East Asia to North America, then from North America to Soviet Russia, and finally from Soviet Russia to East Asia, rebuked the Baji and pointed out the country, as if the whole world was in his heart; and Japan, looking for Japan, did not have such a broad vision. The European worshipers in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs only knew to blindly follow international treaties, and repeatedly said that not following international treaties would cause disaster to Japan; while the Asian worshipers, who had a larger number, advocated the supremacy of East Asia. They mentioned the fact that whites discriminated against yellow species, advocated the exorcising of white species and made Asia a yellow species Asian remark.
Although the former is knowledgeable, he is extremely timid, while the latter is extremely blind even though he is brave, and some people think that the United States can be destroyed in three months. How reckless and arrogant is this! What is the world like? What will the war really happen? What will the war be? What will Japan be... These questions are all the things he is most concerned about, but these questions cannot be found in Japan. At this time, Yang Rui was on the side, and he had to seize the opportunity to ask.
After whispering in the ear of the close servant, the close servant whispered in the ears of Fushimigu and the Immortal Palace. After a while, the few people finished discussing. Fushimigu said, "Your Excellency, will the United States start a war no matter what we do or what we do?"
When Fumimi asked the question, Yang Rui looked at Hirohito. He knew that this was what Hirohito wanted to know, and there were more than one question, so he answered: "Your Highness, in order not to be so troublesome, please ask all the questions. The questions of the United States, ours and the United States, actually need to look at them from a dynamic and systematic perspective, and at the same time, we must look at them from a political perspective. This is a systematic problem, and it is definitely not something that can be explained clearly in one or two questions."
Fushimi's question comes from Hirohito. After hearing what Yang Rui said, Hirohito had to ask Fushimi again. There are many things that cannot be spoken by him for the sake of the dignity of the emperor.
"Your Excellency, I just want to know why the Americans do this? How should we do our two countries to get the best interests? Why do we help Europe stabilize the situation? If there is another war in Europe, we can not only avoid war, but also benefit from it? Are we fighting with the United States or not? If we win and do not occupy Nanyang and Haozhou, what is the value of war?
Perhaps it was because Hirohito had someone whispered a lot just now, and Fushimi and Miyao Miyaki asked a lot of questions. This was not only Hirohito's question, but also their own question. In Yang Rui's description, there were many contradictory things. In addition to the possible war between the United States and their own, they could not find the reason why their current actions were done.
When the two asked questions, Yang Rui just kept silent and waited until they finished speaking completely, and said, "Have you asked both Your Highnesses all the questions?"
Most of the questions were actually Hirohito. Hearing that he said this, Hirohito nodded, Fushimi and Shin-in-law also nodded, Fushimi said, "Your Excellency, we have finished asking, please help me."
"I dare not take it." Yang Rui smiled politely and had to start a long discussion, "It's just that these problems are too huge. If you really want to talk in detail, you may not be able to finish it in seven or eight days. I'll just say it for a long time. It's mainly from three aspects. These three aspects are combined to be a system. The first thing to talk about is the country itself; the second thing to talk about is the United States itself, and the third thing to talk about is the strategy itself.
Whether it is a country or a nation, the essence of a human is a beast, but unlike beasts, people have writing, civilization, society, thoughts, art, etc., which are all things that beasts do not have. Under the immersion of these unique and intangible objects of human beings, people gradually have human nature, so these things are summarized as good, while human beings are born from beasts and are summarized as evil.
From a historical perspective, the more developed civilization, the less evil the people will be, and the more good they will be. It seems that if there is no evil in the world, human beings will definitely live a better life. Just like in Europe today, pacifism is rampant, welfareism is prevalent, and many people are even calculating: If the last war did not happen, what kind of prosperity would hundreds of billions of wealth bring to Europe. However, this idea is just the wishful thinking of the Virgin and the mindless!
Human beings can go to this day, swim in the sea, fly in the sky, and run on land, rely on eternal evil. It is evil that drives the progress of history, not good! It is endless corpses that have forged brilliant civilization, not peace under the fantasy of the Virgin! This is the way of survival from ancient times to the present, but some people ignore it. They sit on the wealth obtained from war and killing, but praise peace in their mouths. There is nothing more ironic than anything more ironic!
Yes, they can indeed practice welfareism, but the reason why welfare exists is because of the plunder and conquest of their predecessors. The British Empire could promote its welfare system to India? France could benefit Africa's unemployment benefits? In fact, if ethnic groups want to develop, nations want to develop, and country want to develop, they must follow the most basic law of survival of the fittest in nature. What we need to remind here is that in order to facilitate rule, this law can only be passed down among the ruling classes.
The reason for this is that no matter what political system it is, no matter how the law or tax system avoids it, there are always people in the position of victims, and some in the position of beneficiaries. Children from poor families are stupider than children from noble families? Obviously not! Women in Tokyo are virtuous than women in Sapporo, obviously not! But there are only so many positions in the upper class? If you rely solely on intelligence tests to determine a person's destiny, society will definitely be in chaos.
European aristocrats pay attention to bloodline, and American capitalists defend property rights are effective mechanisms to make the country stable in ruling classes. In this way, their children can only go to aristocratic school as soon as they are born, and then mingle in the upper class. Children from poor families can only go to ordinary schools. No matter how high their intelligence and good grades are, they cannot enter prestigious schools. The fate of their future can be imagined.
But some people think this is not good, everyone should be equal, so the Soviet Union appeared, but what is the result? Apart from the few Bolsheviks who really devoted themselves to ideology, cadres and political commissars are the new aristocrats of the country. Their power is greater than that of European aristocrats and American capitalists, and there are few restrictions. And their descendants, as long as they do not make mistakes, will definitely be cadres."
As if in class, Yang Rui said this and looked around the audience, then coughed heavily, and said, "Next to the second issue: the United States itself.
For thousands of years, this is the essence of the country, but even if some people do not believe in evil, the Bolsheviks, and the United States is the same. The predecessors of the American people said in the Declaration of Liberty: 'Everyone is born equal'. They also said in the Constitution of the United States of America: '... Make sure that we ourselves and our descendants can enjoy the happiness brought by freedom'."
How ‘equality’ will damage ‘freedom’, not to mention history, but to say everything that has happened in China in the past twenty years is clear at a glance. At this time, due to the economic crisis, most countries around the world are on the verge of revolution and war. For the former, such as Spain, the specific approach is to confiscate the property of the proprietors and distribute it to the unemployed; the latter is Italy, the specific approach is to rob other countries of wealth to feed the unemployed in their own country.
As the birthplace of the economic crisis, the United States is also on the verge of revolution and war. But because of the ‘everyone is born equal’ and the **** system, the United States tends to revolution rather than war. What is the essence of Roosevelt’s new policy? It is to increase government spending to hire a large number of unemployed people. Where does the money come from? First, increase taxes. Second, issue treasury bonds, that is, deficits, and third, issuance of paper money. These three are means to distribute the wealth of the proprietors to the unemployed.
Can these expenses drive the economy? Obviously not! Build so many parks, built so many roads, and built so many dams, simply cannot stimulate the economy. Highways are indeed convenient for transportation, but the current situation is insufficient transportation. What is the use of roads when the road is built? Dams can generate electricity, but at this time, all factories are shut down, so what is the use of power generation?
In the 18th year of Shenwu (1929), the United States GDP was 96 billion US dollars, the federal government's fiscal revenue was 4 billion US dollars, and the expenditure was 3.8 billion. The surplus of 200 million hedged the fiscal deficit accumulated over the years. This was the last year to reduce the deficit. The scale of the national debt at that time was 21 billion US dollars. In the 21st year of Shenwu (1932), the United States GDP was only 53 billion US dollars, and the federal fiscal revenue was less than 1.9 billion US dollars, and what about the expenditure? 4.9 billion, and the expenditure will be more than one year after year, last year it was 7.5 billion, and this year it is estimated to exceed 9 billion.
Perhaps for the United States, nine billion government spending is not much. Her GDP last year was 68 billion, and this year it is estimated to reach 75 billion. Nine billion is only 12% of the GDP, but don’t forget. This is just the expense of the federal government. How much is the state government? How much is the expense of the local government?
In the 18th year of Shenwu, when the federal government spent 3.8 billion yuan, the state and local governments spent more than 5 billion yuan; in the 23rd year of Shenwu (1934), when the federal government spent 6.3 billion yuan, the state and local governments spent 6.6 billion yuan [Note 149]. This means that the expenditure of governments at all levels in the United States this year must have exceeded 15 billion yuan, which is 20% of the GDP. These expenditures cannot be supported by taxes. Take last year as an example. The federal government spent 6.4 billion yuan and the tax revenue was 3.7 billion yuan, and the less than 2.7 billion yuan depends entirely on national debt. How many people will buy national debts in the economy in a downturn? The essence of national debt is to print money.
The above figures are boring, but please remember that the personal income tax rate in the United States is as good as or even higher than the last war. Although the government bonds are not taxable, the essence of printing money is to dilute the wealth of the proprietors, which is more abominable than taxation. More and more paper money will cause prices to rise sharply, and people who could barely make a living will find it difficult to survive because of the rising prices.
If the United States wants to develop like before, it must protect the property of the proprietors, because the ruling class of the country is capitalists, and depriving them of property rights is to shake the foundation of the United States. However, under the economic crisis, the United States is obviously in a constitutional crisis: according to the US Constitution, unemployed workers can use their votes to make the federal government arbitrarily collect taxes and print money, which is essentially to collect the property of the capitalists free of charge, which will inevitably lead to conflicts between capitalists and the unemployed, and at the same time create a conflict between "equality" and "freedom".
If Roosevelt's new policy continues, it can be predicted that the political structure of the United States will undergo revolutionary changes. Those political families and large capitalists will suffer heavy damage and may even confiscate most of their property. Mass politicians representing the general public will frequently appear. Roosevelt is such a mass politician. The Republicans summarized his election program as: 'Expens, expenditure; taxes, taxes; elections.' Roosevelt was not afraid of the general election at all, because the people had been bought by him with the money of the proprietors, and he had an absolute majority of support.
In the future, in the United States, people who do not work and receive monthly relief funds will be in millions, and most of the prolific people will choose to immigrate. Because the personal income tax is too high, seventy-five or even eighty dollars of the one hundred he earns will be handed over to the IRS, and eventually it will become relief funds for those who have received it for nothing. The country's economy will not develop, and the mortality rate is much greater than the fertility rate. Like European countries, the decline of the United States comes early. And what we want is such an America!"
The discussion was so long that except for Hirohito and Beshou, the two princes were dozing off when they heard it. After saying, "This is the United States that they want," Yang Rui temporarily shut up and drank tea for a while. When he saw that the two princes felt something was wrong, he continued: "Next to talk about the last part: the world itself.
The British Empire has ruled the world for hundreds of years. But she has declined. Although the United States was her chosen successor, the Doves government did not want to pay a high price to maintain Europe's prosperity, so it was allowed to collapse. The world is now unparalleled, and Britain can only maintain the pound area. The United States only cares about the American continent, and even is unable to take advantage of the Naziization of South America.
But no matter what, the United States has the capital to replace world hegemony. Now she is only disturbed by isolationism and pacifism. If Germany launches a war, Roosevelt will be able to use the memories of the last war to inspire Americans to join the war. War is the best way to get the United States out of the current constitutional crisis. With the United States' industrial and economic strength, victory is easy. After victory, the United States will dominate the entire Europe and is naturally the world hegemon. Therefore, we must stop Germany from going to war no matter what.
We must make the United States fall into the constitutional crisis caused by the Roosevelt New Deal, and make the political landscape in the United States undergo drastic changes, and even bloody conflicts and local wars. Only in this way can the United States be no longer the United States and become as civilized and weak as France. This is naturally the most beneficial to us. When the European and American worlds weaken, we just rise for less than 30 years. Asia is our economic colony, and within sixty years, the whole world is our economic colony. However, after more money, will we become a weak country like Britain, France and the United States be another question. Okay. I'm going to finish talking about it."
At the end of Yang Rui's grass, even Bei Shoutong may not fully understand what he wants to express, but he has answered most of the questions Hirohito wants to know.
"Your Excellency," Yuhito asked again after Yang Rui rested for a while, "Is our strategy toward the United States to make her deeply trapped in Roosevelt's New Deal?"
"Yes!" Yang Rui said, "No one can destroy the United States, only he can destroy himself. The current US Treasury bonds are 37.5 billion [Note 15]. According to the current federal government's expenditure scale, even if the military machine is not activated, the deficit will reach a critical point of 50 billion in four years, and the federal government will face bankruptcy. If the government continues, not only will it support huge interest, but the buyers of Treasury bonds will also decrease drastically, and the deficit will increase exponentially, and it will exceed 70 billion in three years. Then the government goes bankrupt and the revolution begins."
"What about the war?" Hirohito asked again.
"Getting into a war is actually a gamble, and it is the only way to avoid the constitutional crisis caused by the new policy." Yang Rui said, "I said that this year, the expenditure of governments at all levels in the United States exceeded 15 billion yuan, accounting for 20% of the GDP. Twenty percent seems not much, but it is four times that of the normal economy. If the economic crisis causes a significant reduction in tax sources, this expenditure is eight times that of normal times. Or from another perspective, the total expenditure of US$30 billion in two years is far more than the military expenditure of the US military during the last European war.
This money employed six million unemployed workers, and they only did things that were difficult to reward. This not only made unemployed workers develop laziness. They can actually become farmers. The United States has land, but they don’t go. This is because they don’t want to farm, and the agricultural groups are unwilling to engage in agriculture. In addition, bad elections have been held in politics to promise benefits to the people. Whoever promises more benefits will be able to come to power. What they do after they come to power is to increase taxes and print money. In the long run, the United States will not only weaken its economy, but also move frequently, which is equivalent to destroying the foundation of American development.
If you want to get out of this trap, you can only turn unemployed workers into US soldiers or military factory workers when war is started. After the war, not to mention wartime plunder, just because most factories in the world are destroyed by war can prevent the United States from unemployed workers. This is the only way to completely get rid of Roosevelt's new policy."
"But we signed a naval disarmament treaty with Britain and France, and the United States withdrew from the treaty and continued to build warships and expand its navy. What should we do if there really is a war?" Hirohito asked. "Will American bombers in Luzon bomb our dock?"
"According to information, the new American bomber ranges from 3,000 kilometers. If it only takes off from the Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines, it cannot reach Shanghai, Nanjing and Wuhan. If it is built at the northernmost end of Luzon, then Shanghai, Nanjing and Wuhan are on the edge of its bombing radius." Yang Rui said. "If war begins, our air force will defend the national airspace. Even if it cannot resist, it has nothing to do with the overall situation. The industry of our two countries is that they cannot reach the north."
"But is the intelligence accurate? We really don't build some air carriers in advance?" Hirohito thought that this time he sent troops to East Africa, he almost suffered heavy losses due to intelligence omissions. Fortunately, the fleet changed its combat plan and landed in Skimayu. At the same time, the target of landing in Mogadishu was not announced before, otherwise all international reputation would be lost.
"Totally accurate." Yang Rui was sure, "It is really no need to build an aircraft carrier. The United States can be regarded as an opponent with great strength. If we build ten ships, he will build twenty ships; if we build twenty ships, he will build forty ships. Our best way is to try to compress the number of fleets before the war starts, so as to prevent the United States from increasing the number, and then defeat it with home court, technology, experience and other advantages at the beginning of the war. Even if it is not defeated, it will bring the strength of both sides closer. The key to the war will be the speed of building aircraft carriers, as I said just now, two to three years in the first two to three years. This must be our victory."
"What about after that?" Hirohito and Fushimiya spoke in unison, and Miyagi Miyaki also looked over.
"Then we gained the entire Pacific maritime power, and the United States only had the Hawaiian base." Yang Rui affirmed: "But we do not have as many bombers as the United States, so in this case we can only seek sums. As long as we let the US Navy shed enough blood in the process of reverse-stripping from the Philippines to Pearl Harbor and even the West Coast of the United States, it is not difficult to end the war."
After talking for a long time, Yang Rui's strategic vision for the Pacific War finally came out, which is a defensive counterattack. If the United States had twenty aircraft carriers and ten of its own ships before the war started, the US would sink eight to ten US ships at the beginning, and then with a speed of several times faster than the United States, it would indeed be able to gain the entire Pacific sea control in the early stages of the war. Even if the US did not sink so many aircraft carriers at the beginning of the war, the shore-based aircraft could ensure the safety of coastal cities, but what if the US bombers could fly further? Tianjin, Dalian Shipyards, and shipyards across Japan would be covered by US bombers. China and Japan would sit and wait for death under the bombing of rice and livestock.
"Your Excellency, this is too risky!" Fushimigu said, and he was sweating heavily. "If the United States had bombers with a longer range, our shipyard would not be able to build an air carrier! The result would be a defeat! We must start the war before the Americans loaded bombers with a bombing radius exceeding Shanghai!"
"No! Even if the Americans have bombing radius covering the bombers in Harbin, we cannot start the war first." Yang Rui looked firm. "Because this is related to the final peace talks. If we provoke the war, then the condition for the end of the war will be our unconditional surrender. Unless we occupy the American mainland, this is impossible. If the Americans provoke the war, such as the Spanish-American War, there will be a possibility of peace talks. The first move will be of no benefit except to arouse the anger of the Americans.
In addition, we need time. The Americans must have bombers with a longer range, but it only exists on the drawings now. On the premise that we are observing the London Naval Treaty, let alone the reason Roosevelt convinces Congress to equip such bombers. Even if the US military obtains enough military expenditure to develop such aircraft, it will not be able to develop and equip the troops in two or three years. This will take at least four or five years, and we will need these five years!"
"But..." Yang Rui said it is not unreasonable, but Fujian still insists on his own point of view. "With the US Navy dominance, how can we occupy the Philippines? If I were Roosevelt, the Philippines would not only have a strong American fleet, but also a large number of air forces and army defenses. As long as they can defend the Philippines, the war will end soon."
"But the problem is that Americans can't defend the Philippines!" Yang Rui said firmly.
"Why?!" Fushimi's voice gradually increased, and she looked like she was going to fight. "If they built a Philippine naval base like the Pearl Bay and arranged thousands of aircraft and hundreds of thousands of troops to settle in, we would not be able to capture Luzon when the US navy had a clear advantage. In the continuous bombing, we would surrender in a year."
"No reason!" Yang Rui's voice suddenly became very light, and his smile turned cold.
"Your Excellency!" Fushimi shouted, "Are we defeated like this?"
"Of course not. The later the war comes, the greater the hope of our victory. Even if the Americans have a bomber that reaches Harbin, they cannot win. Please be sure to believe this!" Yang Rui said sincerely. At this time, a mushroom cloud flashed in his mind.
*
The author's words cannot exceed five hundred words, so:
Note 151: The original text is: ‘Roosevelt later said that in the spring of 1933, the big bankers from all over the country gathered in Washington to ask the government to rescue them from the bankruptcy plight, and they insisted that in order to achieve this goal, the federal government would be worth borrowing a large amount of debt. The president asked them how large the federal government could bear without damaging the credit of the country. Their answer was between $3.5-700 million. … It was obvious that the government was still far from the brink of bankruptcy in 1933.’ Past, present and future of the international technological and economic powers”, p75. (To be continued.)
ps: Note 144: Original history is 13.1 billion, original position is 9.6 billion, "American historical statistics, from the Colonial Period to 197", p126, 4.
Note 145: "Complete Book on Treasury Debt Management Business", p397
Note 146: The amount of the original historical treasury bond was 1.7 billion, but considering that the wartime expenditure of the United States was higher than that of the original history, and the loans to Britain, France, Italy and Russia were also higher than that of history, so the treasury bonds increased by 400 million (Note: The factors that caused the decline in the fiscal surplus of the US federal government due to Chinese goods robbing the US commodity market were not calculated here. The original history was 2.4 billion US Treasury bonds in 192 were 2.4 billion US Treasury bonds were offset by 700 million in nine years), and treasury bonds in 1929 were 2.1 billion. "Zhang Hongxing's General Theory of Contemporary American Enterprises" Introduction to Contemporary American Political Culture", p57
Note 147: The original history is 1.924 billion, and the original position is less than 1.9 billion. "The History of the United States Economics in the Last Hundred Years", p426.
Note 14: The expenditure data is the same as the original history and has no increase. Data source: Note 144.
Note 149: Foreign Finance, p13
Chapter completed!