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Ren Juan Family and Country Chapter 91 Differences

"After he is an official, you can't be more polite." When Zhang Kun rushed to the conference room, Chen Guangfu, deputy general manager and director of the International Department, had learned about everything he had in his office, so he gave some tactful advice.

"Tsk! So what if you are an official? What I hate the most is the bureaucrats who respect public opinion and morality. They don't understand finance at all. If they had known that Ma Yinchu was such a person, they should have let the guards be driven out from the beginning." As the founding father, Zhang Kunsu couldn't bear to see these bureaucrats who were incompetent in the world. This made Chen Guangfu smile bitterly. He knew that Zhang Kun was good at everything, but he was never polite to those who disliked him.

"Are you ready?" Zhang Kun didn't care about everything just now. He only cared about whether he was ready for the yen closing action.

"Everything is ready." Chen Guangfu didn't persuade him much. He glanced at Gu Yiqun who was about to start the speech.

"Then let's start." Zhang Kun lit the jade pipe again, sat down and began to listen to Gu Yiqun's report.

"After the economic crisis, tariff wars, trade wars, and currency wars all exploded. As the total export place of the crisis, the tariffs have been raised to 30% to 40% in order to reduce imports and increase domestic employment. The situation in Europe is different. The German economy, which uses American capital as the economic circulation blood, has no resistance and fallen the deepest; the British economy is already corrupt, and old industries such as textiles, coal, shipbuilding have insufficient construction after the war, and the emerging mechanical and electrical industries have not yet reached a scale, so the number of unemployed people before the crisis was as high as one million. In the economic crisis, there were more unemployed workers, but it depends on the influence of the vast colonies and the British pound, which can be maintained for the time being;

France has depreciated the francs in order to increase exports. The domestic agriculture, industry and service industries are balanced, and the gold reserves are sufficient, so they are almost unaffected for the time being; Austria, Hungary and other Austria-Hungary remain between Britain and Germany, and once the situation changes again, it will completely become the second in Germany.

Although the pound is an international currency, its sphere of influence is increasingly eroded by the US dollar after the war. Poland, the Baltic and other countries have directly replaced the pound as gold reserves. Moreover, European countries have invested a lot in the UK. Once a run occurs, England has a great possibility of closing the pound exchange channel. Announcement of the UK's withdrawal from the gold standard."

Gu Yiqun is from Huai'an, Jiangsu Province. The Chinese Education Association was born in the United States. Although he is considered his own, Zhang Kun is well-known in terms of his family background and his education at New York University. Since the European War, the governing economy represented by Keynes has been incompatible with the free economy represented by Hayek. The specific representative of the former in China was Ma Yinchu, Liu Dajun, Chen Changheng and others of the Chinese Economic Society, and the latter was Gu Yiqun and Tang Qingzeng. Before the feudal of the Revival Society, the governing economy was once the main economic idea of ​​China. However, after the reform, the free economy began to be praised, which is why Gu Yiqun was valued.

"Ji Gao, how confident are you to think that once the bank runs, the UK will announce its withdrawal from the gold standard?" The meeting said it was a meeting, but in fact it was a report. The report to strangle the yen to enter the next stage. Its strategy is to attack the pound, make it withdrawal from the gold standard, and then make the yen isolated and helpless, but this is a big deal. Zhang Kun had to be careful.

"Sir, the pound is extremely weak. According to our investigation, the Bank of England has reserved less than 1,500 tons of gold [Note 143]." Gu Yiqun said. "In the previous plan, once Germany announced financial controls, the Bank of England would also announce financial controls in order to deal with runs. The control is equivalent to exiting the gold standard. The pound becomes British banknotes and no longer has unlimited repayment functions. Japanese yen."

"What if the Bank of England did not announce the regulation after the German financial control?" Although the plan had long been clear, it was dealing with the British pound after all, and Zhang Kun suddenly felt a little nervous.

"Sir, during the European War, once Germany and Austria announced financial controls, Britain and France immediately announced a ban on gold exports in order to prevent the country's gold from being run. Now Britain is weaker than before the war, and at the same time, the Labor Cabinet has always been a priority on the inside but abandoned the outside. Once Germany starts financial controls, the Bank of England will be forced to announce its withdrawal from the gold standard under pressure from domestic and foreign bank runs." Gu Yiqun said.

"Xingjian, Ji Gao believes that there is no need to wait until autumn or the end of the year. Now we should hit the pound." Chen Guangfu interjected. He was worried that Zhang Kun would be too worried and miss the opportunity.

"Yes." Zhang Kun took off the pipe he was holding, but then he remained silent. He had too many things to consider.

"The Intelligence Bureau ensures that everything is foolproof. It depends." Chen Guangfu thought Zhang Kun was worried that China would be implicated at this time, so he explained again. "Banks in Germany went bankrupt every day, and the market was extremely volatile. After the Kuomintang-Social Party's general election was victorious, they had reached a consensus that the more German banks went bankrupt, the more supporters they would have."

Using the KSBC as a leader to run German banks, Germany eventually had to start financial controls and withdraw from the gold standard, which is what the Intelligence Agency can do. Of course, it is not because of the Intelligence Agency's boundless magic power, but because of the chain effect. As for how Britain will make a decision after the German financial control, it is not something the Intelligence Agency can guess. Fortunately, the logical relationship between Germany and the United Kingdom is like this, and Gu Yiqun's judgment is 99% correct.

"Okay, let's start in Germany." Zhang Kun finally focused his attention, but he still asked with concern: "What's the situation in Japan? What do those chaebols mean?"

"Mitsui, Mitsubishi and other consortiums fully support our judgment. Once the pound exits the gold standard, they will automatically keep up with the subsequent supply of yen and runs. In fact, this is not difficult to understand. The pound exits the gold standard, and then we are also announcing a ban on gold exports. The yen will definitely not last much time. Once the yen announces its exit from the gold standard, its exchange rate will fall to the bottom."

"Sir, the exchange rate of the yen exit gold standard fell to at least 100 yen to thirty dollars or 60 Huayuan." Gu Yiqun added.

"From the original 49.85 US dollars to 30 US dollars, the difference between the two is as huge as 19 US dollars. The chaebols in Japan will definitely not be able to sit still. They will try their best to exchange the yen into foreign exchange or gold to maintain their value. By then, it will not be our business to run the yen, and this will be the business of all those who hold the yen."

"Then where is our profit?" Zhang Kun suddenly asked. The purpose of the yen withdrawing from the gold standard was achieved, but banks cannot be without benefits, especially in Germany, where tens of millions of marks were gone.

"Our profits are all in the gold and foreign exchange exchange exchange exchange. By then, the yen depreciates by 40%, which is enough for us to make money." Chen Guangfu did not expect that Zhang Kun also made money in such a thing, and he is really worthy of being the general manager.

"There is another question. When will Japan withdraw from the gold standard after the pound exits the gold standard?" Zhang Kun said again.

"This is hard to estimate." Gu Yiqun said. "If Inoue Junnosuke and others acted at the opportunity, Japan would likely announce their withdrawal from the gold standard immediately; but this is just a practice. If there are political factors involved, such as large US dollar loans to save the market. Or if we announce that we will not withdraw from the gold standard, then Japan's withdrawal from the gold standard will be delayed again and again."

Yarma Schacht was a stereotyped German with his straight collar always standing high. Although he was no longer the president of the German central bank, his reputation for stopping vicious inflation in 19 years made him famous in Germany and even the world's economic circles. But most importantly, he was a firm believer in classical economics and has always supported the gold standard, balanced budget and free trade. If he opposed Germany's withdrawal from the gold standard, all efforts of the Stormtroopers and Goebbels would be ruined.

"Mr. Schacht, my point of view is to avoid the crisis from re-influence, and the increase in unemployed workers, perhaps exiting the gold standard is a good choice; tariffs should also be raised appropriately, and the most important thing is to open up new markets." Thanks to the expo education of the nobles, Rebecca knew everything. When Schacht's wife walked away, she began to fully express her views.

"New market, madam?" The German-renowned Duke Rebecca came to visit her home. Schacht felt very honored. Despite this, Schacht only agreed with the views in the Duke's words to explore new markets, and it was difficult to choose the right ones.

"Yes." Rebecca put down the wine glass. "When I get the news, if Germany can give up the gold standard, then the Chinese tend to hand over more orders to Germany rather than the United States, and most importantly, the advance payment can be greatly increased."

"Dear lady. Why do Chinese people want us to give up the gold standard?" Schacht asked curiously. He did not doubt everything Rebecca said, but it seemed that the necessary logic was missing.

"I got only this promise." Rebecca picked up the napkin and wiped her mouth carefully. "It's not clear what the Chinese are going to do. Yarma, do you think this is worth it for Germany? If they purchase 5 to 1 billion marks in Germany and pay half of the payment in advance."

"This is a big deal." Schacht was a little incredible. Is it just a big purchase? He asked in disbelief: "Madam, is this delivered in US dollars?"

"Of course, it can also be Chinese Yuan, pound, or soybeans." Rebecca smiled. She was satisfied with Schacht's reaction. In her opinion, it seems not difficult to change the position of Shahl close to Gorene and her own. Now that China has promised to order additional orders, it is even easier for him to change his position.

"This is worthy of recognition." Schacht excitedly picked up the napkin and wiped his mouth, "but I can't imagine how the Chinese people handed us the order of five to one billion marks under the tender."

"This is the business of the Chinese. And even in the previous procurement, there are many projects that are not purchased through bidding. As long as there are only three suppliers, Chinese people can bargain in accordance with the provisions of the tender law. Negotiation is not public, so it is very simple to give orders to more German companies." Rebecca said, "Yarma. Chinese people have always liked German products. Although their infrastructure is about to be completed, industrial construction has just begun and the economic crisis is not very prosperous. Domestic demand is strong. I think if the German economy wants to get out of the trough, the Chinese market must not be lost."

"Madam, I fully agree with your point of view." Schacht nodded slightly, but he was not a person who easily compromised. "But what should we do? Another more important question is: Once Mark exits the gold standard and Huayuan insists on the gold standard, then the depreciation of Mark is equal to the appreciation of Huayuan. For China, this is equivalent to selling goods at a discount, which is unfair to Germany, although it has no impact on Germany. This is exports and imports. Many of the raw materials for German goods come from abroad, and the depreciation of Mark is equal to the decline in actual purchasing power of Mark. It is very likely that due to the increase in import costs, the benefits of depreciation are not enough to offset the increase in imports."

"This is indeed a problem." Rebecca smiled. The decline in purchasing power after Mark exited the gold standard may be higher than the depreciation level, which she had not considered before. Therefore, she was even more appreciative of Schacher, a banker who took the initiative to defect.

"The other is the issue of compensation." Schacht said again: "In the previous treaty signed by Germany, even if China handed over more orders to Germany, Germany would have to deliver compensation in accordance with regulations. This largely offsets the profits of German companies, and all they can get is that workers have work to do. Although the compensation has been stopped, the depreciation of the mark will still increase the value of the gold mark. Assuming that Germany starts paying compensation again after the negotiations, then exiting the gold standard will have more harm than good for Germany."

"If the negotiations are completed, Germany needs to pay the compensation again, then the economic crisis will have caused all European countries to withdraw from the gold standard long ago." After hearing all Schacht's opinions, Rebecca began to refute. "So the problem of increasing actual compensation due to the depreciation of Mark is not necessary to consider it at all. The problem of depreciation of Mark's purchasing power decline abroad, I think if China pays China Yuan or US dollars, this is not only not a problem, but a good thing. Even if we need to evade compensation, we can barter with China and exchange machines for soybeans, which is acceptable to many traders."

"You convinced me, madam." Schacht was completely impressed by the wonderful idea of ​​bartering, "Let me tell me what should I do? Will Mr. Luther, who went to lobby for the Central Bank?"

"This is one of them," Rebecca said. "You should also express your views strongly in the newspaper, believing that Germany should temporarily withdraw from the gold standard and wait until the economy is prosperous. This is beneficial rather than harmful to Germany. Germany has no investment overseas, and giving up the gold standard and allowing the mark to depreciate will only stimulate exports."

"I can do all of this, but I still doubt whether the government will agree with it." Shahel stressed, "The Prime Minister will likely stick to the gold standard due to pressure from Britain and the United States, unless other countries also withdraw from the gold standard."

"There is no need to worry about the government." Looking at Mrs. Shahel who came with a smile, Rebecca hurriedly ended the conversation, and she finally said: "You will understand that it is necessary to exit the gold standard tomorrow morning."

Shahel didn't care about Rebecca's last hurried sentence, but when he went to work the next day, he sat in a black Mercedes-Benz sedan and saw some clues in the newspaper. The bigger miracle was that the long queue was lined up in front of the major banks after the driver exclaimed God. Obviously, judging from the length of the team, they obviously waited for most of the night.

"What's going on?" Shahel thought of Rebecca's last words last night, his eyes rolled and began to imagine some kind of involvement.

"Sir. Everyone said that Mark would soon depreciate like he had in the past few years." While Schaler was thinking, the driver quickly opened the door and went to the long queue to ask, and the result he got was very uneasy. "Is that true, sir, is it really like this? It's so scary, my God!"

"Of course" Thinking of Rebecca's explanation yesterday, Shahel choked for a moment. He fully understood what the gold standard was for Germany. This was a chain between the sovereign state and the colonies. As a commodity export place, they must adhere to the gold standard to ensure that the goods from the sovereign state are constantly imported and not lose money. Germany was originally the sovereign state. But now it is not.

‘If the Chinese really increase the order of 500 million marks and barter, or pay in US dollars’ Schacher thought about this and was very excited. Although Germany ignored the European economy, Germany was only a blood transfusioner from Britain and France, and leaving the gold standard was to completely break free from the blood transfusion. “Take me to the Ministry of Finance.” Schacher decided to think of this.

"Mr. Minister. You must let the police disperse those people!" German Central Bank President Hans and Luther rushed to the Ministry of Finance before Schacher arrived, but what he wanted was not to control foreign exchange, but to control those who ran. "They were planning runs, and it was by no means accidental. If they were allowed to show, more and more Germans would join the run. Our only foreign exchange and gold will be emptied by them!"

"Of course I know the urgency of things, but this does not comply with the law unless foreign exchange and gold controls are implemented." Finance Minister Hermandy Trich also saw a long queue at the bank entrance on his way to work. As soon as he arrived at the office, he called Luther, hoping to know what was going on.

"But" Because he was too excited, Luther forgot to have the small flyer he had been holding in his hand. It was the man, with a fat head and big ears on it. He laughed wildly with a handful of gold. In one corner of the picture, there was a bunch of villains snatching the German mark he threw from the air, and there was a sentence on it: 'More printing machines are needed!' It was obvious that someone was deliberately creating a run.

"Mr. Minister, this is the flyer I found from the queue. The ** people are inciting this run. They hope that the 19-year inflation will repeat itself. The chaos will make it easier for them to engage in conspiracy." Luther handed the flyer to Dietrich and began to state his own point of view. "Even if all those who should be scattered in the bank's doors cannot be arrested legally and prohibited from running."

"No! Mr. Minister, this will only cause greater chaos." Shahel, who was one step late, finally arrived. He heard that Luthor was going to expel the crowds lined up and immediately expressed his objection. "Mr. Luthor, maybe ** or the National Socialist Party is hoping that we will send police to expel them. If there is a bloodshed, it will cause this cabinet to collapse."

Shahel voluntarily resigned from the position of central bank governor several months ago. The reason is that Prime Minister Brüning has to implement a new economic plan regardless of taxes and has nothing to do with it. Others are the issue of reducing and exempting war debts. All countries disagree, especially Americans. Although Shahel resigned, his influence in the Ministry of Finance and the central bank is still there, so when he heard his voice, the minister and the president looked at him intently.

"Germany needs a stable government, and a stable economy. Foreign exchange and gold are not enough to deal with private runs. So why not ban the exchange of foreign exchange and gold from now on?" Schacher said. "Then we will let Congress elect representatives to look at the foreign exchange and gold to ensure that they are still in the hands of banks and are not exchanged by bourgeois bankers."

"But" Luther looked at Shahel unexpectedly, surprised by his change in attitude. He had previously insisted on the gold standard. "If foreign exchange and gold are controlled, what should we use to pay for war debts and import payments?"

"Germany is now unable to pay war debts at all. When the economy improves, we can lift foreign exchange controls." Schacher answered erraticly, and he had long thought about these questions. "We can adopt an approval system for foreign exchange required for imports. When enterprises have export orders, we place foreign exchange based on their orders. If it is not an export order, domestic independent production should be encouraged, so as to stimulate the domestic economy and reduce unemployment."

Schacher answered seamlessly. In Dietrich's praise, Luther asked again: "Controlable foreign exchange will devalue the mark. Now many German companies are bidding in China. If the Chinese use the mark to pay, then the currency we actually obtain will be reduced; and countries will not approve of us controlling foreign exchange and gold, which will bring chaos to the entire European economy."

Luther's position as the governor of the central bank is obviously not a false reputation. He said that the disadvantages of controlling foreign exchange gold were all fully described, but Shahel came prepared. He smiled and said, "Mr. Luther, it is famous for Chinese people not to like foreign exchange. Their purchases are all US dollars. The depreciation of the mark will not reduce our income; and countries do not agree with us controlling foreign exchange and gold. Of course, I know this, but control is the only way to stop the run. At the same time, control is also a matter of time. I can't see any signs of economic improvement for the time being, and the economy is deteriorating. It can be said that even if we don't control today, we will control tomorrow. Even if Germany does not control it, Austria will also control it. Is there any difference?" (To be continued.)

ps:[Note 143: World Gold Association official website:.Its reserve is 1o8o tons/(19).].
Chapter completed!
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