Ren Juan Family and Country Chapter 70 Not Good
Tao Shouhe has a strong Tao Chengzhang temperament. It is probably because Tao Chengzhang's reputation made him think about farmers all the time, but this is completely wrong in Yang Rui's opinion. Not to mention that agriculture is not the whole of the national economy, even the national economy is not everything about Greater China. This can be seen from the authority setting of the departments under the Prime Minister's Office that the Ministry of Rites and the Ministry of Land is the most important. This does not mean that he would rather not promote the economy than implement the government orders of the Ministry of Rites and the Ministry of Land, but rather that the death must execute the government orders of the two departments.
Compared with whether the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of farmers are of course important to whether the Yellow River has stopped flowing. The north is only nourished by the Yellow River. The north that has lost the Yellow River will eventually become a Gobi like Gansu. The cost is not offset by agricultural exhibitions and economic exhibitions. It should be noted that in a hundred years, the deterioration of the ecology will turn all economic achievements into vanish.
However, the officials don’t think so. They will be transferred in a few years and retire in a few decades. Of course, it is important to exchange political achievements for future development. In the future, the Yellow River will be cut off and the north will become the Gobi Desert. What does it have to do with him? They have long immigrated to New Zealand, and the environment and ecology will never come again in the north.
With this attitude, Yang Rui did not answer Tao Shouhe's question, but continued: "With the current agricultural cost, can farmers survive by cutting down the price?"
Tao Shouhe came this time and needed him to provide detailed agricultural data and then judge the dangers and opportunities of agriculture in the world economic crisis. However, his popular plot obviously made him seem to be distorted when completing this task. After hearing about Yang Rui’s problem, Tao Shouhe said: “Uncle, farmers’ livelihoods will definitely be greatly affected. In recent years, the prices of agricultural harvests have continued to rise, and the people have invested a lot of the money they have earned before on new farm tools. Once the prices plummet, they will lose all their money.”
"Lizhong, just tell me if people will starve to death?" Yang Rui spoke in a calm voice, interrupting his words.
"Starting people to death? It won't be possible to starve people to death." Tao Shouhe thought for a while and said. "But"
"At the middle of the day, the economic crisis will surely arise. No matter how we pull it, it is inevitable. Besides, our economy is only less than one-fifth of that of the United States, and even if we want to pull it, it cannot be pulled up. So, Yang Rui took a sip of tea, "Agriculture will definitely be severely damaged, like the mulberry silkworm industry mentioned just now. It is almost a devastating blow. I used to advise the people not to raise silkworms, but they did not listen. They said that they would give subsidies to cut mulberry trees, but they did not cut them down. Not only that, they also in turn accused Tianhua Company of producing rayon and demanded that Tianhua Company stop production. What is this logic?
Since farmers don’t starve to death, there is nothing to worry about. The land lease bill has been passed before. I think many farmers will rent out the land this time, so they will collect some land rent in the future.”
The price of agricultural products is cut in half, and the mulberry and silkworm industry and other planting industries will be devastating. According to the land lease bill passed by the Juan Academy, the result will be permanent rents that have appeared in the public concession in Shanghai. Or Yang Rui is kind, or for some reason, the regulations on the lease term of land lease are: residential land for seventy years, commercial land for forty years, agricultural land for thirty years, grassland for fifty years, forest land for seventy years. However, unlike later generations who have been vague after the expiration of the years, they never dare to explain the problem clearly. The Land Leasing Act clarifies the issue of renewal of the lease after the expiration of the years.
That is, when the lease contract is signed, the land value is determined at the average current price. This assumes to be the capital of the company. After the lease expires, if the leaser wants to continue the leasing and the lease price of the two parties cannot be negotiated, the landlord will automatically become a shareholder. If there is no other negotiation, he will receive dividends according to the investment (land price). This ensures the continuity of the leaser's operation and production, and at the same time, the landless farmers will eventually have a profit and will not have nothing.
Yang Rui believed that this method was more than the peasant position of the rural land contracting law in later generations, but Tao Shouhe was very worried about it. He said: "Uncle, in this way, those bankrupt farmers may become tenants again."
"There is nothing to do with the tenants." Yang Rui disagreed with this, "If they don't say that they are landlords, they can have a rent for land, and there is nothing to say about being willing to accept the loss. I think according to the current farmer's business situation. This time, the farmers who pawn the land should be farmers who grow cash crops, and farmers who grow grain will have a tighter life, so the land can be kept. Since they want to make more money, they should know that the market is risky, and you must be cautious when entering.
Okay, Lizhong, wheat, cotton, corn, and soybeans are the big heads of exports. Just talk about it. If the price is really cut in half, what are the advantages of exporting to the outside world? Can you beat Americans?" After Yang Rui said that, he saw his face full of sorrow, and had to add, saying, "Don't mention the livelihood of farmers. If you really feel cruel, then think about the Russian farmers who escaped after the Soviet Union set up a collective farm and were unwilling to go there. The national exhibition must have a price. In the Soviet Union, it is a collective farm, and in our case, this is an economic crisis."
"Yes, uncle." Tao Shouhe wanted to help the peasants complain again, but when Yang Rui mentioned the Russian peasants who fled the border, he had no idea. According to newspaper records, the Russian peasants who escaped tried their best to avoid Russia. The most bizarre thing is that Russian women, regardless of age, like to seduce Chinese men. After they become wives or concubines, they can become Greater Chinese nationality and will no longer be Russia.
It can be said that this is the second time that the Chinese people have married foreign women on a large scale after the Fuxing Army went to Europe to participate in the war. This temptation to open foreign meat has made the foreign Northeast and Beiting a dream place for all old and young men: there are countless foreign women, countless golden sand, and local officials who are both bandits and domineering, rampant guns, and fine wines that never wake up after being drunk. Anyway, as long as it is something that the man loves, they can be found in Beiting and Northeast China.
But this is the man's passion after all. Any intellectual person knows that Russian peasants fleeing abroad is by no means because of famine, but because of forced implementation of collective farms. Russian rural areas have a long tradition of village-clubs, which makes Stalin's collective farms extremely unsuccessful. After confirming that they must join the collective farm, the timid rich peasants killed the animals they were about to join, sold seeds and farm tools to resist passively, and the bold ones rebelled with weapons.
After these situations were frequently disclosed by domestic newspapers, the intellectual class across the country was almost terrified of Russia. If everything that was born in the movie Kronstad could be used to whitewash the revolutionary expedient measures, the collective farm policy made the people who had experienced land reform and suppressed rebellion stunned. They thought land reform was a stain of the Revival Society, but they did not expect that the Russian Party would be even more inconsistent with the world. The slightest compensation intention was confiscated. Even North Korea, for example, knew that it was a hat of Japanese traitor.
The darker crow looked gray and white. Yang Rui said that the Soviet collective farm made Tao Shouhe keep silent about the farmers' livelihood. He took out his notebook and said, "The wheat production last year was more than 24 million tons, of which 2.3 million tons were used for export. The average export price of the east coast was 70 Huayuan per ton, and the Beiting was 72 Huayuan per ton, which was ten yuan lower than the US wheat. The cotton production was more than 6.9 million bales and the export price of 3.7 million bales. The average export price of each bag was 170 Huayuan per ton on the east coast, and the Beiting was 172 Huayuan per ton. The export price of the US cotton during the same period was 200 Huayuan per ton;
The total soybean output is 5.94 million tons, used to export 4.4 million tons, with an average export price of 65 Huayuan per ton; the total corn output is 21 million tons. The export price of 1.9 million tons is 60 Huayuan per ton; the export price of 1.9 million tons is 60 Huayuan per ton; the export price of 100,000 quintals is 2,100 Huayuan per ton; the export price of 2,100 Huayuan per ton is 2,100 Huayuan per ton"
Among the exports of agricultural products, wheat, cotton, soybeans, corn and raw silk are the major export items, with exports of 1.6 billion, 6.3 billion, 2.8 billion, 1.1 billion, and 2.11 billion. Among them, because the export of raw silk is concentrated in the United States, once the United States is finished, mulberry farmers will definitely not be able to save it. This is no longer a problem of price halving, but a problem of halving.?
"Wheat" Yang Rui thoughtfully calculated. After listening to the price quoted by Tao Shouhe, he felt that the price of grain is much higher now than in previous years. He remembered that wheat seemed to be forty or fifty yuan per ton in the past. "Wheat was carried three yuan and five yuan per pound, three yuan and three yuan per pound of cotton, three yuan and two yuan per pound of soybeans, and twenty-one yuan per pound of raw silk. Neutral, there is really no way to raw silk, so he can only notify mulberry farmers, and notify mulberry farmers to reduce yields is not a solution. Mulberry trees are not cut at all. If the other things are cut in half, wheat will be carried seven yuan per pound, nine yuan per pound of cotton, five yuan per pound of corn, and six yuan per pound of soybeans. In this price, except for the low cotton, farmers' harvest may not be too bad."
"Uncle. This is just the export price. For example, if soybeans are going to be foreign businesses, then foreign businesses will account for 16%, including customs declaration fees, profits, etc.; if it is a cooperative, there is basically no fee except the money spent by the cooperative itself. In addition, the freight is also a big deal. The railway is one yuan and two yuan per ton per ton, and the waterways are cheap. It only costs three cents to be connected to all places. The freight costs are generally 30% off, and then the packaging and decoration costs are reduced. In the end, it only reaches farmers about 50% to 60%. The situation of wheat is very similar, but because the unit price is high, the freight rate is generally 20%. Cotton also accounts for less than 10% because of the high unit price," said Tao Shouhe.
"Fifty percent is counted, so each lever of soybeans is 80 cents. The current average yield per mu is 180 kilograms, which is 42 cents; wheat." Yang Rui took out the notes he made in the Northeast before, looked at the data on it, and smiled: "It seems to have been poured out again. The increase in yield offsets the price difference. In the past, the output per mu was only about 100 kilograms. If the purchasing power of Huayuan and Yangyuan is relatively high."
Tao Shouhe didn't want Yang Rui to see the problem like this, so she was stunned. Yang Rui said again: "Now that 8% of the agricultural tax has been cancelled, tenants should not pay more than 30% of the rent. Once the economic crisis, the prices of industrial products will plummet, so it is better for tenants than in the past few years. Tenants are worry-free and self-cultivated farmers are better, but these people are thinking about money, afraid they will save more."
"Uncle, can't you think of any solution?" Unlike Yang Rui's optimism, Tao Shouhe was worried.
"What can I think of?" Yang Rui looked at Tao Shouhe with a slanted look. The experience of a fruit seller made him understand that business cannot be killed. Unless both the buyer and the seller ask for money, the price of the contract with foreigners in advance is completely invalid. The only useful thing is to take the lead in grabbing channels, just like others shipped in advance, because the price is lower the price the more you go to the market to wait for a long time after the Qingming Festival, and then chat with the purchasing master for an apple promotion. At this time, if the fruit in stock is not released at room temperature, it will be over.
"What can be done now is to reduce production, but except for soybeans, I think everything else is difficult." Yang Rui said proudly. Northeast China is already his home at this time. The entire Northeast China has an organized system. When it comes to reducing production, it will immediately reduce production, without any ambiguity. "Every family grows cotton and wheat, and there are raw silk provinces. That is, the government reduces production in literature. Will it really do the following?
The feasible solution is that farmers and farmers are closely connected with the Commercial Intelligence Bureau and Shanghai futures markets. If they can harvest before the stock market collapses, they should be shipped quickly and shipped by train. Such as cotton, eggs, tea, tung oil, peanut oil, soybean oil, and pig bristles, all such goods that can afford money. Don’t ship them at sea, just take the Persian Western Regions Railway. The faster you sell them, the better. As for wheat, soybeans, corn, etc., it’s up to fate.”
Thinking of the scene of the goods being sold, Yang Rui shook his head slightly, "There are oil pressing plants and hydrogenated oil plants across the country that have to be rotated 24 hours a day. After all, oil can be transported by railways, soybeans can only be transported by sea. Finally, it is a not very good method. First, it is to keep close contact with the meteorological department and find a way to plant as soon as possible; then it is to control water and fertilizer to prevent the banker from growing too long. Finally, it is to spray ethylene on a large scale under the guidance of agricultural technicians. If this set is done, the grain can be launched on the market one month in advance."
"Can this happen?" Tao Shouhe was very moved. He thought of many ways, including finding ways to set prices in advance with foreign merchants, but he never thought of ways from the crop growth period.
"Technically speaking, it can be completely done." Yang Rui nodded. This is his previous experience in collecting oranges in Binchuan, Dali. In the whole of China, except for Hainan's lack of temperature difference between day and night, Yunnan citrus was the earliest ripening. In Dali, 50,000 kilograms were harvested, and waxing was carried out in the packaging factory, and the English-branded box was 'topeet'. Once you arrived in Beijing, it turned into imported South African oranges, earning tens of thousands of yuan per car; or when you went to Jiangxi during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, if you were not allowed to pick them in southern Jiangxi, you would go to Wan'an next door, rush a car to green in the local area, and then drag it to Jiaxing Packaging Factory for waxing packaging. The English-branded box was 'sunkist', and when you arrived at the Caoyang Road market in Shanghai, it turned into imported new kimono oranges, which were tens of thousands.
This is true for fruits, and so is agricultural products. The price of one end and one tail is high, so it is not too late. In the first year of the economic crisis, if Chinese agricultural products can be listed one month earlier than the United States and Canada, even if there is futures trading, the price will be higher than that of the later American flour. As for the second year of the economic crisis, grain and cotton are not fruits. It is no problem to put them for a year, so the second year will still be blind!
Thinking of this, Yang Rui, who missed his career as a fruit seller, shook his head and said, "But this can only be taken care of in the first year, and the second year, the whole world is full of unsold agricultural products, so let it go.
Li Zhong, the economic crisis is not a bad thing. All the people selling food in the world are Canada, the United States, Argentina, Australia, the Balkans, India, and us. Russia's economy has not yet recovered, and it accounts for very little, and even needs to import food."
Yang Rui thought about these major grain exporters and suddenly felt that Argentina was too conspicuous. He understood a little why Argentina would never get better in the future. This was clearly because it was made. With her, American food and British colonial food, beef was not easy to sell. If she was done, the market would be vacant. He accounted for 20% of the world's wheat exports, and the proportion of animal husbandry was also very large.
"The economic crisis is actually a round of reshuffle. We don't seek to expand sales of wheat, but only increase the export volume of cotton. You can calculate it yourself. 3.7 million bales of cotton are sold for 630 million yuan. If 74 million bales are exported, then it is 1.26 billion yuan? The other few things are not as much as this one." Yang Rui thought about the prospect of cotton spinning and felt that it was indeed a powerful tool for gold.
"Then the United States will suffer a great loss and India will disagree." Tao Shouhe thought about the world cotton trade and felt that this was difficult to achieve.
"Whatever our cost is it, regardless of whether we agree or not?" Yang Rui asked.
"We" Tao Shouhe opened his book again and said, "The Western Regions, Beiting, Henan, Shandong, and Zhili are the largest cotton-producing provinces, especially Beiting in the Western Regions. The average yield of 40 kilograms of lint on a mu of land there, and the cotton quality is also good. Each mu of land can collect more than 40 yuan and 5 yuan, which is twice the income of growing grain. However, the grain transportation within the customs used to be freight for 30 yuan per ton, and there will be very few people who grow cotton without falling."
"What about the cost?" Yang Rui understood the farmers' choice: farming means making money. If they grow grain, they will immediately grow grain.
"It's almost the same as growing wheat, but there are more labor." Tao Shouhe said, "Compared with growing wheat, the working hours of growing cotton are fifty or sixty times that of growing wheat. Farmers can do it themselves, but it's not cost-effective to plant more workers. Compared with wheat and cotton, the labor hours consumed by a load of wheat are 3:9 in the United States and Canada, and we are 66:7 in each bag of cotton. The working hours for each bag of cotton are 268 in the United States and we are 1,420 in four thousand. [Note 136]
Based on working hours, four laborers in a family of five can only plant more than five acres of cotton. If you don’t hire workers, you can’t plant other crops. Therefore, most farmers only plant one or two acres of cotton, and then plant some wheat and corn. They hire a short-term worker during the busy farming period, so they can only be busy for a year. If you want to increase cotton yields greatly without losing benefits, you still have to find a way through manual or mechanical means."
"Have you remembered it?" Yang Rui looked at 6 eyebrows and said happily.
"Yes." Knowing that men are most interested in numbers, especially in the comparison data of Sino-US agriculture, 6 Eyebrow has long recorded it.
"Lizhong, what data does your book have? I will copy it to me later. I want to use it. Only with these data can some ideas be effective." Yang Rui said with gratitude. "Since it takes time and effort to grow cotton, we will go to small agricultural machinery. American farms are larger than each other, and our households are only more than 20 acres, which is impossible to compare. However, through this economic crisis, those who are capable of renting other people's land and then scattering hundreds of acres in succession, so that machinery can be used. This is the same as agricultural cooperatives. Small households voluntarily walk together and raise money to buy machines. Instead, they can save it. It is very similar to collective farms in the Soviet Union."
Unexpectedly, Yang Rui compared this to a collective farm. Tao Shouhe said, "Uncle, can this be the same as a collective farm?"
"It's basically the same, the only difference is that the collective farm is hens raised by Comrade Stalin. He has not left any of the eggs laid by these hens, and he used them to exchange for money to buy machines to achieve the electrification of the Soviets. The Bolsheviks regard the whole world as an enemy, so they naturally have to be wary of everything to prevent the enemy from counterattacking. Without electrification, aircraft, cannons, and chariots cannot be built, and the regime cannot be stable. I can still be idle when I step down, and those of Stalin will die without a place to die." Yang Rui said of the electrification of the Bolsheviks, and sighed.
"Okay, Lizhong, you go out first, I will talk to Xingjian for a while. You can organize your data for me." Yang Rui said, "I have the data within the government, but I am worried that those people will make fake."
"It's my uncle." After Yang Rui's order, Tao Shouhe stood up and walked out, leaving only Zhang Kun in the living room.
When turning the page of the 6-eye record table, Zhang Kun said: "Sir, it should be during the domestic stock market economic crisis."
As soon as Zhang Kun opened his mouth, he was a big deal. Yang Rui lit a cigarette and took a breath and said, "It's been three years, and the stocks in the hands of landlords should be available for listing and trading, right?"
"Some people have already put stocks on the exchange without regard to the law, but they were blocked by Mr. Yu." Zhang Kun said.
"Well, they can't wait." Yang Rui smiled. The state-owned company's stocks were compensated to the landlords, but it was stipulated that they would be listed after three years. This was the calculation that the major banks under the National Bank would take advantage of the world economic crisis and the market was extremely sluggish, and then completely control the state-owned company through a series of complex equity transactions. By this time, from finance to industry, Revival will regain most of the power.
"I can't wait." Zhang Kun said this and had to look at Yang Rui. It was Yang Rui who said that there was a world economic crisis when he resigned. With Yang Rui's prestige, everyone was immediately panicked after he said this.
"Don't worry, the economic crisis has been going on for several years, and there are opportunities." Yang Rui smiled. "Remember to be too ugly. You should be more humble in your mouth to avoid being hated."
"Student understand." Zhang Kun nodded quickly.
Chapter completed!