Since the meeting discussed shipping issues, Xu Huafeng's suggestion was to build a dock, train workers, and expand the scale of shipbuilding again. Of course, this scale must not be as large as before. After all, merchant ships are limited. Now these three to four million tons have been borrowed from Japanese shipping personnel. If the ship is rebuilt, the ship can only be rented out. Therefore, this round of ships is mainly used for rental and external sales. The purpose of sales and rental is to raise the ship price. When the ship price is high, the freight rate will naturally rise sharply. In this way, the three to four million ships built at the beginning will benefit from it.

Yang Rui was surprised by the stock trading routine. He looked at Xu Huafeng and felt that he shouldn't have thought of it. He looked at Yu Huizu again, but found that he was smiling. He asked now: "Hanzhang, are you?"

Seeing Yang Rui ask himself, Yu Huizu nodded, not denying that he had come up with this solution.

All aspects of the war cost money. Nitric acid is not set at high prices because it is necessary to compete with saltpeter, but shipping is different. And both China and Japan know that the most profitable thing is definitely shipping. The basis of shipping is steel, docks, riveter workers, well-trained crew members, etc. This cannot be achieved in the short term. Even if China uses the power of a country to build ships on a large scale, there are still many problems that have not been solved. Since only China and Japan control such a large amount of merchant ships in the short term, it is necessary to speculate. With the tonnage of Chinese and Japanese merchant ships, even if the freight rate increases by 10%, it is an amazing number.

"This is a report raised by the Commercial Intelligence Bureau. Qiu Fan didn't dare to make a decision, so he came to discuss with me. I looked at the data in various aspects, especially the ICAC and the General Secretary's expectations, and I felt that I could do it." Yu Huizu said. "Mr. Huafeng means that we should sell some merchant ships or purchase some merchant ships at one price, so that the ship price can be raised and the freight rate will also rise."

After he said that, Xu Huafeng smiled and said, "Now Japan feels that shipbuilding is too expensive. If we dare not build it, then we can only open more docks to build it ourselves. I don't understand whether this is a shipbuilding or not. It's better to hear Han Zhang say that, he is confident."

The matter turned to Yu Huizu, who cleared his throat formally and said: "The total tonnage of ocean-going merchant ships counted around the world last year was more than 28 million tons, Britain had more than 13 million tons [Note 1:], Germany had four million tons. Austro-Hungary had one million tons, France had one million tons, Denmark had one million tons, Russia did not have accurate data, about three million tons..."

"Germany, Austro-Hungary, Russia, even if there is a ship, they can't get out. Don't forget it. Just tell me how many tonnage the United States has." Yang Rui remembered that he had read the World Shipping Report two or three years ago, but he forgot the above figures.

"The United States' ocean-going merchant ships are 20 tons more than Japan, with a holding capacity of 1.8 million tons [Note 2]." Yu Huizu said.

"So little?" Yang Rui was surprised. With the total economic output of the United States and naval tonnage, the tonnage of this merchant ship is too small.

"Yes. It's so small. So the freight rate in the Pacific has not dropped." Yu Huizu said. However, he had even more surprise to Yang Rui. "Last year, except for my country, the number of merchant ships launched in the world was 3.6 million tons, while the number of long-distance commercial ships launched in the United States was 300,000 tons. There were only 66 large and small shipyards in the country, and 24 of them were wooden ships. The General Staff and the Ministry of Industry judged that if the government did not invest in the shipbuilding industry on a large scale, the total tonnage of American merchant ships would not exceed 3 million tons in four years."

"But I remember..." Yang Rui couldn't say what he remembered the original history, so he quickly changed his words: "I remember the General Staff's judgment that German submarines would sink six million tons of merchant ships every year. If they start unlimited submarine warfare now, it will be more than one year."

"That's what it means." Yu Huizu said: "Germany can basically sink all merchant ships around the world, and then there are a bunch of sailing ships and small boats that cannot be sailed far away or are difficult to sail far away. But we don't know when Germany will start unlimited submarine warfare. This matter still needs the judgment of the Intelligence Department."

"I understand that the intelligence department is always paying attention to this matter." Yang Rui suddenly felt a little uneasy. He remembered that the unlimited submarine warfare in history should have started at the beginning of the eighth year of Shenwu, but now, I don't know when William II will bet. If the judgment is wrong, for example, Germany has not launched unlimited submarine warfare from beginning to end, the matter can be...

"The General Staff report said that once Germany starts unlimited submarine warfare, the already crowded docks of Britain and France will be filled with cruisers, and the construction period of cruisers will be at least one year, which will cause the number of merchant ships in the Allied countries to drop sharply. The launch volume of hundreds of thousands of tons of water in the United States cannot be replenished, while the steel in Europe is used for military industry. Because the north is occupied by Germany, France will only produce less than 40% of the steel production before the war. It is estimated that the total launch volume of merchant ships in Europe and the United States will not exceed three million tons by then.

When the Allies build warships, Germany will build submarines. If this continues, the number of merchant ships will become smaller and smaller. In the end, the freight rate will become higher and higher. As long as the United States does not focus on merchant ships, our profits will be guaranteed to the greatest extent." Yu Huizu said. "If it is confirmed that Germany will definitely carry out unlimited submarine warfare, then not only will it have to raise the ship prices in East Asia, but it will also go to the United States to secretly interfere with the United States' shipbuilding to reduce the number of shipbuildings."

"Interference? How to interfere?" Yang Rui looked at Yu Huizu, not wanting Du Yaquan to take over the conversation. He said: "It is mainly to prevent the US Congress from vigorously revitalizing the shipbuilding industry. We can influence the US public opinion, monitor the trends of consortiums, and shipyards, and also targeted lobbying lawmakers if the US Congress proposes a subsidy shipbuilding bill. We can even provoke US shipbuilders strike, making the shipyard unable to work normally; and we can also release some anti-submarine technologies that are slightly useful for submarines, so that the shipyards cannot estimate the real harm of submarines... Anyway, these are the methods, the purpose is to prevent US shipbuilding from building large-scale ships, especially in advance."

When Yang Rui heard Du Yaquan say he wanted to provoke the Americans to strike, he laughed. What a good person at the time has become so bad now. He said: "It's not our business to interfere with the United States, just let the Germans do it. I'm worried now that if we expand the scale of shipbuilding, will the machines be enough? Is there enough steel?"

"The most important equipment of the dock is the crane." Xu Huafeng said, "We can produce it ourselves. If we can't produce it, it's still time to order it in the United States. If we go to the United States, it's basically enough. It depends on how many tonnage we will expand. The previous estimate was that 800,000 tons of merchant ships were launched every year. Based on the shipyard's manpower and crew members, we can expand it to 1 million tons of merchant ships a year, but this output can only reach half of the next year and the goal will be achieved in the next year."

"One and two million tons?" Yang Rui said. "This is just too much..., this is actually not much!"

"If the war is fought for four years, it would be one million tons of additional merchant ships." Xu Huafeng said. "The main reason is that the crew is short of crew members. Because shipbuilders are standard ships. Production is easy to train, but there are not so many crew members who drive the ship."

"How many people can Japan bring over?" Yang Rui thought about the tonnage of the merchant ship. Now there are 1 million tons of merchant ships. This year, 800,000 will be launched, 1 million next year, 1.2 million will be launched, and the year after tomorrow... There will be a truce in the year after tomorrow, with a total of 4 million tons; if Japan has two million tons, China and Japan will have 6 million tons of merchant ships in total. This is the second shipping giant in the world except the United Kingdom. If British ships can save half of the German submarines.

Yang Rui thought, but Xu Huafeng said: "What I think is not how many ship workers Japan can give us. But is it time to urge Japan to build ships. If Japan also makes every effort to build ships from this year, the total tonnage of merchant ships between China and Japan will be at least nine million tons. Maybe it will have ten million tons..."

"I have a problem..." Yang Rui suddenly thought, but he just spoke but didn't know how to talk about this problem.

Du Yaquan, who seemed to guess his thoughts, said, "Is he really worried that the foreigners would forcefully take the freight rate down?"

"Well. I have this concern. The largest route for freight is still the Atlantic Ocean. We can only help Americans, British and French transport goods. What if they unite to lower the freight rate? After all, their ships are a minority, and our ships are the majority..." Yang Rui said of his concern. He had a natural distrust of the great powers. At that time, foreigners forced a low price, or did they not freight?

"Then we won't be transported!" Du Yaquan said. "Does the great powers want to seize ships? Although our navy is weak, there are still nearly 200 submarines. The Japanese also have fleets. Both shipping companies have already joined forces, so he always wants to stand out."

"It turns out, what effect can the wolf pack tactics you mentioned achieve?" Xu Huafeng asked: "The laboratory has not yet come up with a feasible way to crack this tactic. They only say it is very promising. Now the detection distance of the underwater detector has increased several times compared to before, and the sensitivity is higher. The laboratory believes that as long as the time is enough, it is not a problem to solve this series of problems."

"Well..." After reminding Du Yaquan and Xu Huafeng, Yang Rui suddenly felt that there seemed to be a little reliance on occupying the world shipping market. You should know that if the German wolves can be cracked, there is a fear that they will not be able to find a second one except China. If the great powers mandatoryly set a low freight rate, then let them fight with the wolves to the death.

During the silence, Yang Rui lit a cigarette, thought for a while, and then looked up and saw everyone looking at him. He smiled and said, "Let's relax. This matter is really confusing. We asked Japan to build a ship, but he wouldn't do it without giving anything else. Not to mention anything else, he would probably have to pay on credit for the ship steel plate. This bet is a big bet!

Although our shipbuilding is very large, the shipbuilding cycle is only three months short, and there is also a cordon of two million tons. If the unlimited submarine warfare begins, we will not cross the line. When the European war is about to be over, we can stop immediately. This is just a two million tons of merchant ship, not a big deal. At the moment, the freight rate will be paid for the price of two ships. But nearly ten million tons of merchant ships..., this is a bet on national fortune! Think about how much money can this ten million tons of merchant ship earn? With the current US ship rental cost, the speed is less than 11 nautical miles, and each ton of weight is 40 US dollars per ton of weight. If you really lack a ship, it will be 400 million US dollars, which is 48 billion a year. The war will last for three years. What a huge amount of money is this!

But when we build ships, we don’t count at market prices, we will calculate 100 million tillions per ton. The cost is more than 600 million t. If these ships are not freight, then the 600 million t will be wasted. In addition, based on our foreign trade situation and the layout of the world’s terminals, when the war is over, the number of merchant ships can be used will not exceed 200 tons. This will have to bet many merchant ships into inland transport. The year before yesterday, it was a bet of hundreds of millions of taels, which was to fight and build ships. We would not lose much. Now, we bet on world shipping, and we bet on such a big bet. It’s really..."

Yang Rui has always been radical and bold in his decision-making. Du Yaquan and others thought he would immediately agree to the dock expansion plan and cooperate with Japan to urge his shipbuilding plan. Who knew that after he said that he had so many concerns. Du Yaquan smiled and said, "It's true, this is not like you, why have you become so cautious?"

"You know what's the matter!" Yang Rui laughed and scolded, "As the saying goes, the older the world, the less courageous it is. This is not a matter of making a random fortune. It's a matter of robbing the whole world for several years. Now the ship charter is forty dollars, but if the unlimited submarine warfare really starts, the price will be more than doubled. The price is not that the merchant ships were sunk by German submarines, but now the price is because Britain and France have taken out of Asia and all went to the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean, and Africa.

It is the closest place to Europe, and the supplies needed to transport are the closest. So there are no tigers in the mountains in Asia, and monkeys dominate the king. But if the Germans beat the bang bang, they will kill 6 million tons of merchant ships a year and 800 tons of them next year, then we will be the shipping masters of the whole world, but there are not enough guns in their hands. Can this master be called an uncle? Japan has a navy, but the navy is too weak. Also, we have submarines, but we make money. Can we really start a war with foreigners because of the high and low freight rates?"

"It's true. As long as the rental price can rise to two hundred dollars, we will rent out the entire ship; we don't want to rent it for two hundred dollars, and one hundred dollars is fine. In this way, there will be one billion dollars in a month, one hundred billion a year. We don't want to be too much." Du Yaquan smiled. The others nodded, only thinking that this was a good idea.

"It's really a waste of time." Yang Rui cursed again. "That ten million tons of ships. Either the unlimited submarine warfare has not begun, the rent will always be only forty or fifty dollars, and the merchant ships need to be saturated; or the merchant ships are in short supply, and the rent will eventually rise to 4500. It has all risen to 4500 and 551 tons. What else do we rent? Isn't it better to transport it yourself..."

"Haha..." Yang Rui said a few chucklings, and everyone here was confused by him. Yu Huizu said: "It turns out that we built ships in order to get a share of the pie in shipping? The world's trade volume exceeds 36 billion US dollars every year, and the freight is at least 4 billion, which is not considered insurance premiums. Since we have set our sights on this part so early and have worked hard to attract the Japanese to join the market, we can't always think about making 1 billion and 2 billion. We should think about whether we can cut half of this cake.

You have said before that you should have a higher vision in doing things. The ancients also said: Seek the best and get the most, and get the most. Now there are only the United States in the world. Britain has the ability to build more than 5 million tons of merchant ships during the war. We can't control the United States. The United States is aware of it and can easily be misled. The war only lasts for a few years. With its current shipbuilding volume of hundreds of thousands of tons, it will be misled for a year. Even if it is fully expanded, it will have to be fewer than millions of tons of merchant ships. At that time, we will have the most ships in the world. Whether it is transporting itself or renting it, the freight rate will not rise. We can only get 400 billion US dollars according to the tonnage of the merchant ship.

Don't laugh..." Yu Huizu, who was a good-tempered, was a little angry, and his voice raised octave: "This is not a period of peace, this is a war that determines world hegemony. The military situation on the front line is like fire. The German army fights one against three, and Britain and France rely on colonial blood transfusions to barely maintain their unbeaten. Once most of their merchant ships are killed by German submarines, then our ships are their saviors.

If you are worried that they will forcefully lower the freight rate, then we can bet on both ends. If Britain, France and other countries do not agree with our freight rate, then we will negotiate with Germany. Because Germany will likely win without these ships, so the Germans don’t want us to go to him, and they will come by themselves. If we sink all these ships, Germany will not only pay us money on the spot, but if we win, we may also divide our colonies. I don’t believe that Britain, France and other countries will have a stumble with us at this time. If the British are so short-sighted, how could he dominate the world for hundreds of years?”

It seems that Yu Huizu had already considered cutting a large piece of cake on the fast-growing cake in the world shipping market. After saying that, he looked at Yang Rui and asked, "It's done, just say, what risks are there to be achieved?"

"This matter..." Yu Huizu was very serious, and Yang Rui also began to be serious, "Okay, let's not talk about the freight rate, at worst, you can make less money. There are three questions now, one is how to fool the Americans into delaying for a year. The United States is the only country that can exceed our shipbuilding volume. Although it now only has a pitiful merchant ship of more than 100 tons and a merchant ship of hundreds of thousands of tons each year. But Americans are willing. How to build Ford cars, merchant ships can be built. What should I do if the merchant ships of the two countries are built too many? What should I do if the freight rate drops sharply?

The second is how to talk to Japan. This is not the previous shipping joint venture, this is a shipbuilding joint venture. Japan has to build at least three million tons of ships. Only two countries can have 10 million tons. Who will pay for these more than 10 million tons? How do we calculate the profits and risks? This requires filling in the profits of arms, otherwise where can we get the lot of docks and where can we get so much steel? When we planned to build 800,000 tons a year, we said that we wanted to build 300,000 tons of merchant ships to change our minds and coax people. Unlimited submarine warfare will not begin. When we build 2 million tons, we have to wait and see. Now this plan is to go all out to 10 million tons, which is several times higher than the previous risk.

The last one is unlimited submarine warfare and water detectors. If the former does not have it, it would be useless to build so many merchant ships; if the latter does not have it, then the material personnel will not be able to provide assistance, and Germany may really win. The British and French banknotes we received will soon be turned into waste paper.

After so long, people who make decisions don’t feel afraid. When things pass, they think about it, they are sweating all over their backs. This is not that I am timid, but that we are now the ruling party, and more than 400 million people are all counting on us. If you really make a mistake, you will have to start a series of plans again. Although China is backward, there is still a chance to quickly revive, but this opportunity is very small, just like a flash of flash and fleeting. We have to be cautious about this matter."

Yang Rui said this with a serious word. He thought about Du Yaquan, who had pledged out most of the meat in the world shipping market, and Yu Huizu and the others also thought about it. It was really tempting to build so many ships and become the shipping elder brother in wartime. The freight costs would not increase by billions a year, but it would be worth it to increase several times during wartime? This ten million tons of merchant ship will be operated for two or three years. Maybe in the end, it would be able to earn tens of billions. China needs to have these tens of billions, plus the money to buy arms supplies. That's not bad, it's going to run into capitalism.

The idea is good, but is it realistic? A half-depressed and poor man, half-heartedly holding a second-rate navy power to cooperate. Taking advantage of the civilized first-class people's attention, he actually wanted to dominate the world's shipping in wartime? And there are unlimited submarine warfare, and detectors that crack unlimited submarine warfare. Can these two things be accomplished? Especially in unlimited submarine warfare, will the Germans take risks?

The meeting was opened here. To be honest, Yang Rui could not find a reason to stop it, but he just felt that the risk was too high. He set a warning line of 2 million tons before, but now to achieve a 10 million tons of merchant ship ownership, it would cost hundreds of millions of millions of dollars, but this is just a cost price. Once it fails, the loss will be more than one billion yuan. According to the market price, this is at least 1.5 billion yuan. If this money is gone, Central Asia will have to give up.

But what if it is successful? According to the briefing given by Yu Huizu after the meeting, the net profit of warships will not be less than 2 billion pounds [Note 4], totaling 10 billion US dollars and 20 billion Chinese yuan. Because the steel material given to Japan's 3 million tons of merchant ships is a cost price, and even the shipbuilding fee will be paid part of the shipbuilding fee, so when the two countries share the accounts, China will have to get at least 60% of the profit, that is, it can get 1.2 billion pounds and 12 billion Chinese yuan, which is fifteen times the fiscal revenue and 1.5 times the GDP.

With such a huge amount, no wonder Du Yaquan and Yu Huizu held on their feet. They invested less than 2 billion, but they could make several times more profits. This did not include the cost of dealing with those merchant ships in the future. If this were the case, the investment would be even lower.

After getting off work, Yang Rui returned to the back house, and took the report with joy and worries, walked and stood, and talked to himself for a while, silently, making his wives think he was sick. He stroked his forehead with warm fragrant tender hands, and Cheng Xu asked, "I didn't have a fever, what's wrong with you?"

"I'm not a big deal," Yang Rui said: "It's just that there is something to make up. If you win, then you will be rich and prosperous from now on. If you lose, then..." Yang Rui couldn't say what would happen if he lost. Wouldn't he lose more than one billion? The return rate of buying and selling is almost one thousand percent.... According to the capitalist's standard morality, if you have 300 percent profits, you should kill and set fire. Now there is 1 thousand percent, why not take a gamble? (To be continued...)

ps: Note 1: Outline of the History of World Civilization (Modern Part) p450

Note 2: Application Series, 11, American War Plan Economy, p310

Note 3: The World Economic Crisis from 1848 to 1935, Volume 1 p487
Chapter completed!