Volume G Chapter 37 Report
We discussed with Xu Huafeng until late at night, and the bell rang until twelve o'clock. When Cheng Huo sent his midnight snack, the two of them came to their senses from the plan. However, after eating, they started to discuss again. △First, whether finance can support the popularization of primary schools and the popularization of technical schools. In junior high school, the third year of primary school, the second year of primary school, the five years here; after graduation, you have to go to a technical school, you have to go to a simple junior high school first. Although the technical school has to go to three years, the school only has two years to study in the factory, and the remaining one year is internship in the factory, and it is completely supported by internship salaries. This is added for four years, but junior high school and technical schools have to take exams and enroll in the school, and there will be no more students like primary schools.
It turns out that the number is not correct to judge that there are 10 million children of junior high school age. The number may not be correct. After the founding of the country, the average life expectancy of 30 years old is recorded. From one year to sixty years old, the average population of each age is 7.5 million. Since 30 years old is the average point, naturally, the population of each age who is over 30 will be less than 7.5 million, and the younger the age is, the more it exceeds. After all, according to natural laws, the older the age, the lower the survival rate. The entire population age structure chart should be in the shape of a pyramid, with the bottom being a baby.
The number of school-age children at the bottom will exceed 10 million per year, 10 million per year, and 50 million in five years. Such a large number will be based on the cost of primary education obtained by the school department before: each person must have 3 taels of silver per year, so it takes 150 million taels to popularize primary schools. In the past four years of junior high school and technical schools, 3 taels per year must be not enough. Junior high school must reach 6 taels, while technical schools are equivalent to high schools. One year must be calculated as ten taels per year, which is 5 million in junior high school. Here is 60 million; for technical schools, two million students, 40 million. All of these add up to 250 million, and for high schools, universities, and international students. It used to be 15 million taels, but now, 30 million? 40 million? 50 million?
The education budget is close to 300 million taels. If the administration does not include teachers' wages and does not consider the price increase subsidy, it can be set at 80 million taels; military expenditure is not only the forty-three army divisions and a small navy. Now the army has 88 divisions, the navy has nearly 200 submarines, a battleship and an experimental aircraft carrier. In order to obtain a favorable tonnage in the future Washington Navy Treaty, the shipbuilding cost of about 200 million taels in the past two years after the war was still required. In the end, the Air Force, which already has more than 1,000 pilots.
At this scale, the army's military expenditure will definitely exceed 100 million, and be conserved at 130 million; excluding the construction of ships, the annual maintenance cost of the fleet with a total tonnage of 400,000 tons is at least 40 million yuan, plus the air force and some special costs. This will cost another 200 million yuan.
Foreign debt was previously 50 million taels per year, of which the compensation for the Boxer was nearly 20 million, and the compensation for the Sino-Japanese War of 1899 was 23 million taels. The remaining 10 million taels were other loans. If France really declared war, considering that the loan for the Sino-Japanese War of 10 million rubles was borrowed by Russia and France, then the compensation paid to the outside world every year will be less than 25 million taels; the government and diplomatic unit combined will be 10 million taels. The river engineering project is 30 million, and the official industry (research and development) is 30 million. The total budget is 675 million taels, and the width is 700 million taels.
Judging from the tax revenue of 650 million last year, this seems to be comparable to fiscal revenue, but what should I do if I build roads and industry? The first battle bonus is 3 billion, but it will take 1.2 billion to buy arable land. In addition, I am worried that all tenants will buy it in a hurry, so I still have to prepare an additional 500 million; the remaining 1.3 billion, 200 million naval ships will build, and there are still 1.1 billion.
These money, road construction, industry, and wars are all included. The construction standards of the Western Regions Railways are extremely high, and even the double-track is considered, with 3,200 kilometers from Xi'an to Beiting (Ili), 1,500 kilometers from Luntai (Urumqi) to Kashgar, and the budget of these 4,700 kilometers of railways is 350 million taels. In the end, it is unpredictable that the military expenditure for fighting with the Soviet Union. If the Soviet army is fighting in the Far East, the supply of the Soviet army may be unfavorable, and 400 million taels may be able to be settled, but if it is fought in the Western Regions, it would be miserable. Even if the remaining money is used as military expenditure to settle the Soviet Union, what about the money for building roads? Will those landlords also let the railways be paid? This is not a railway, anyone can go up, and the landlords will invest in those prosperous sections, and whoever cares about the rest.
No matter how money is calculated, Yang Rui and Xu Huafeng looked at each other and smiled bitterly under the electric light. Yang Rui said: "Now it depends on whether the Germans will implement unlimited submarine warfare earlier. If it were implemented earlier, then shipping might really make 2 billion taels. With military steel, it would be really worth 4 billion, so thank God."
Yang Rui has always been very confident in Europe, but Xu Huafeng asked: "Now the German army is in a state of unstoppable power, how could they do that? It turns out that the European war won't end this year, right?"
"Impossible!" Yang Rui shook his head, "The war now has a total war, relying on the industrial strength of the entire country. Even if France is occupied by Germany, it still has colonies to support it, with Britain and Russia. At present, it seems that the German army is at the end of its strength. At most, it will not be able to fight to the front line of the Marne River. If it moves forward, the British and French troops will push them back."
"Can't even fight Paris?" Xu Huafeng thought about the European War, and was actually a little fascinated.
"It's hard. The German army's heavy artillery was pulled to the front line by a tractor. But are there enough shells? The Germans can only choose one place to occupy the two fortresses of Verdun and Paris. The one that really poses the greatest threat to the German army is Verdun. If Paris is really valued by Germany, the Germans would not deliberately bypass Paris and pursue the retreating British and French troops." Yang Rui said. "Leo and I judged that the German army would fight against the British and French troops in a trench war situation on the front line of the Marne River, and both sides wanted to detour the other's right wing, so that the front line would extend from the Marne River to the English Channel. Haha, the British would definitely be very excited..."
"Why?" Xu Huafeng didn't know what Yang Rui laughed at.
"Because of advancing to the seaside, the English Channel will be controlled by the Germans on this side of the European continent." Yang Rui said, "In this way, German airships and planes can reach the UK for bombing as long as they cross the strait. Our air force has something to do."
"Ah. Our Air Force? Are you going to declare war on Germany?" Xu Huafeng was puzzled.
"Of course there is no declaration of war, but a voluntary air force can be formed. They will protect the embassy in the UK and protect half of London by the way, so that they can please Britain and buy more things. They can also advertise the planes." Yang Rui smiled. He knew that Zeppelin was panicking in the battle. This is a good opportunity. Aircraft is flying boats. It is not a problem at all. "In fact, it is better to send the air force to defend London than to send the army to Europe to die. A few hundred people are enough. The military expenditure is not high and it is eye-catching. The sacrifice of any soldier will have a great impact, but it is not a big deal if ten thousand people die in France."
Yang Rui said his own way of making a fuss, and Xu Huafeng also laughed. This was like those American volunteers who came to China. They would be summoned and praised by the emperor for their slight military achievements, and the impression was good, and not many people had died. "It turned out that the German emperor would be unhappy, our people..."
"Why is he unhappy?" Yang Rui disdained, "He is Queen Elizabeth's nephew. He can't blow up London anywhere. What should I do if I blow up my uncle and uncle, aunt and aunt? I'm teaching him to be a human being."
‘Hahahaha…’ Xu Huafeng burst into laughter. He was a little tired, but he smiled and lost all the sleepiness he had before. He said, “Since they are all relatives, then he still explodes?”
"When you let me explode." Yang Rui didn't smile at all. "As soon as the French battlefield entered a stalemate, the Germans would try their best to get Britain out of the war. In fact, bombing London was more for intimidation. This is also the case for the Germans to take risks. Unlimited submarine warfare is the same. There are fleets that don't go to the decisive battle. I just hope to trap Britain to withdraw from the war. The German emperor didn't want to fight Britain to death at all."
He shook his head. Germany had fantasies about Britain in World War I and II, but the result was... Yang Rui didn't want to mention the European war more. He said: "I suddenly felt that there were too many submarines. When the First World War ended, there were almost two hundred. If you want to save money, you still have to sell some and leave one hundred."
"Sell it?" Xu Huafeng said: "Who will this thing be sold to? Will it be sold to Germany?"
"Well. Sell some back to Germany and ride the unlimited submarine war before it even started, otherwise you will definitely be criticized by Britain and France when the submarine war begins." Yang Rui said.
"But this matter will be known to Britain and France in the end, then..." Xu Huafeng said.
"We have not violated international law. Besides, neutral Americans can buy weapons for Britain and France. So, can't we sell weapons to Germany if we are not neutral countries?" Yang Rui said, "One hundred submarines can be delivered in gold. If the price is appropriately doubled, they can also sell 150 tons of gold. If these submarines sink more British ships, the freight will rise again..."
Seeing the man in front of him doing business, Xu Huafeng suddenly felt a little sweaty. He waited for Yang Rui to finish his dream and said, "It's actually done. This money can't be earned once or twice. The report of the Ministry of Revenue said that the national GDP is close to 10 billion taels. In a few years, it really reaches 10 billion taels. If the tax collection is 10% of the tax, isn't it? If you count the 20% discount for those that you can't receive, you'll have to pay 80% off. If you subtract the 700 million you calculated just now, the remaining 100 million will be used to build roads. The British cannot offend this money too much. If you don't earn this money, you will have to deal with it in the future."
"That won't work. Britain has the greatest interests in our country. The biggest losses in abolishing those treaties and privileges is that it will lose. He will not agree. There will always be conflicts between the two sides. However, the British are very good at it because they are very conscious of practice. After fighting a few games, he will admit defeat. If selling to a German submarine can make us earn one billion more, then we will sacrifice our money, and nothing will be lost." Yang Rui said, and he is thinking about how to make money now.
The discussion that night ended here. The biggest achievement of the two people was to determine the industrialization path, but how to implement it, the ministers of each department had to discuss and correct it on this basis.
At the beginning of the meeting the next morning, Yang Rui interrupted the previous meeting process and announced a new policy outline. Therefore, the officials of the school, Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Transport that benefited were all very happy, while others such as the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Medicine were very disappointed. This means that the funds to support industrial and medical construction would be squeezed out by their departments. Xie Zhangtai and Zhang Jian of the Ministry of Commerce looked at Xu Huafeng and saw that he was still alive, so Zhang Jian said: "Prime Minister, everyone, now the European war is imminent, and the import of foreign goods is greatly reduced. We should vigorously support the development of industrial. Only by strongly supporting industrial can this country be truly prosperous."
"No, Mr. Zhang Si, there is only one problem now. Who will sell the things produced after the development of the industry?" Yang Rui said. The low-interest loans in the past few years made these people very happy, and now they still want policies.
"Now that foreign goods are greatly reduced, of course, they are sold to the people. The industry has finally had such a good opportunity, if you miss it, you will..." Zhang Jian said.
"It's really a good opportunity now. But Mr. Zhang Si, no matter how hard the European war is, it will end. What should we do if the foreign goods come again?" Yang Rui asked again.
"my country can seek autonomy in tariffs in the past few years," said Zhang Jian. "As long as the tariffs are raised, foreign goods will be greatly reduced."
"Mr. Zhang Si, now only imports 400 million taels of silver. Assuming that these sales share are given to domestic industries and foreign goods cannot be included, what should the industry do if it has occupied these markets?" Yang Rui asked again, pushing him into a dead end a little bit.
"This..." Zhang Jian only wanted to expel foreign goods, and had never thought about what would happen if there were no foreign goods and only domestic goods. "But now the industry lacks funds, and if the government does not support it, then the market that these foreign goods can't be seized."
"Then you can go public or find corporate bond financing." Yang Rui said, "Now everyone knows that investing in the industry makes money, and it is easy to find someone to invest in shares. Why not raise funds like this?"
After Yang Rui finished speaking, Zhang Jian was speechless again. Of course, he knew that selling stocks could raise funds, but as the major shareholder of Dasheng Spinning Mill, how could he be willing to give the shares to others? The government's industrial loans are low-interest. If silver depreciation is considered, when paying back, the money will not only have no interest, but will lose. This is the real reason why the entire industry hopes that the government will provide loans.
"That's right. The government's industrial loans will be reduced year by year. In the end, they will only help when the company starts or is in danger. If the industry wants to raise funds in the future, then please go public or find bonds. China is not without money, and the industry is not unable to borrow money. Now everyone is looking forward to government loans that are just low-interest." Yang Rui said, "You can think about it. If a piece of foreign goods cannot be entered, then after the 400 million-yuan market is occupied by domestic products, who else can the products produced be sold to?
I thought about Huanqing's report last night and discussed it with Mr. Huafeng until midnight. As for the current situation, we cannot just grab the hundreds of millions of foreign goods. We should also create a larger market. This larger market can only be to develop agriculture and improve farmers' purchasing power. Just imagine, 450 million people, one person makes a decent set of clothes for more than a year, how much will the cloth market expand? This is the real gold mine. Agriculture is developed, and farmers can only have money to make industries bigger. By then, the market share given by foreign goods will appear very small. Therefore, agriculture must not only be chemical, but also scientific. After scientificization, the industry will naturally develop. At present, the prosperity of industries is not driven by the government, but the market is driven. This is the right way."
After Yang Rui finished speaking, Cai Yuanpei, Tao Chengzhang and others brought the people in the ministry to applaud, but Yang Rui did not appreciate it. He reached out to suppress the applause and said, "The previous reports of each ministry were written on the premise of revitalizing industry, but now they have become revitalizing agriculture, education, and transportation. Therefore, I suggest that you should go back and consider what the problems are going to do, and how each ministry will cooperate with this national policy."
The change of national policy means that the previous plans of each ministries were in vain. The most severely damaged were the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Industry, but the advantageous industries under the Ministry of Industry were still retained, so only those who invested in light industries in the Ministry of Commerce were the major disaster-stricken people. Du Yaquan was depressed by this. Zhang Jian stood up and sat down, just complaining: "This national policy cannot be changed just by saying it."
Zhang Jian said in a low voice, but Yang Rui still heard it. He smiled and said, "National policy is still being discussed. The first two years ago was decided to revitalize the industry, but now Huanqing's report makes us understand one thing, that is, if the people have no money, no matter how they support the industry, they will be empty. In the end, those factories will never be able to be maintained by the government. Besides, what we are discussing now is the national policy that will be discussed a few years later. Since the founding of the country, all the government's work is preparing for the European War and resisting the Japanese invasion. Now that the Japanese have finished fighting, the European War will end sooner or later. What should we do next is what we need to discuss now. Let's all be dispersed. I hope to see everyone's report before the exhibition next month."
The meeting that was about to be held for several days was apart, which was really surprising. Everyone left with joy or sorrow, but Sheng Xuanhuai and others Yang Rui stayed. After changing a cup of tea, Yang Rui asked: "I have a question now, what is the cost of building a highway? I know that the railway is 20,000 taels cheaper, 30,000 taels expensive, and the Western Regions Railway is almost 80,000 taels. As for the highway, your report only has provincial highways, county highways, and township highways, and there is no cost at all."
I thought Yang Rui was going to stay, but I didn't expect it to be a question. The people who came to the meeting of the Transport Department all built railways. The cost of the highway was not familiar, so Sheng Xuanhuai looked at the few people beside him. However, an official named Hu Dongchao said in Beijing dialect in Cantonese: "Return to the Prime Minister, there are only two roads in Beijing to Tianjin, and there are also two lines from Beijing to Kulun. The construction of the Beijing to Tianjin was built by the army. Although the Transport Department participated, the cost was unknown. The one in Kulun was repaired too early and it was necessary to check the information before confirming it."
Hu Dongchaoshi knew nothing at first, but he said later: "The officials had helped several overseas Chinese businessmen in Guangdong to briefly survey the roads, and used the road standards set by the Ministry of Transportation. This provincial highway is estimated to be around 1,500 taels per kilometer..." I felt that he was not very detailed, Hu Dongchao explained in detail: "Highways are different from railways. There are no rails and vehicles. The cost is roughly divided into three parts. One is the roadbed, which generally accounts for 25% of the cost, and the other is the road surface, which accounts for 10% of the cost.
Twenty-five, the remaining 50% are all bridge culverts. If the road is built in Zhili, there will be few bridge culverts, which will naturally be very cost-effective. But if it is Guangdong, Fujian, or even Yunnan and Guizhou, the cost will be several times higher. As far as the standard is determined now, the cost of provincial roads is around 1,500 taels per kilometer, followed by county roads. One thousand taels per kilometer, even less rural roads. Generally, 500 taels per kilometer is enough." [Note: The cost comes from "History of Guangdong Highway Traffic", p121. The original cost has been increased by 50%.]
"One thousand five hundred taels, it seems to be more than ten times cheaper than railways." Yang Rui couldn't help but talk. He was talking about provincial highways, and rural highways were even cheaper.
Hearing the Prime Minister say that the road is cheap, Hu Dongchao said again: "But the freight rate of railways is more than ten times cheaper than car transportation."
When Hu Dongchao said this, Yang Rui didn't care. He just coughed clearly and asked: "What are the differences between provincial roads, county roads, and rural roads? What is the load-bearing capacity? What is the height limit of bridge culverts?"
"This..." Hu Dongchao was speechless for a moment. Yan Deqing, who was preparing a detailed road plan next to him, answered, "Sir, there is no height limit for the bridge culvert. We set a twelve tons of load-bearing provincial roads. If it exceeds it, it will crush the road surface. County road..."
If the height limit is not limited, how can the load bearing be only twelve tons? Yang Rui shook his head and said, "This is not possible." But thinking that he had not finished speaking, he said, "You continue to say it."
"Yes, sir, the county road cannot exceed six tons, and the township road cannot exceed three tons. The difference between provincial roads, county roads and township roads is that the provincial road is Tanshi Road, county roads are gravel roads, and township roads are sandy roads; the provincial roads are eight meters wide, the county roads are six meters wide, and the township roads are four meters..." Yan Deqing said, and he also explained why he was interrupted by Yang Rui when he chose this size.
"What is the road of Tanshi Road? The asphalt road is not very good." Yang Rui asked.
"Sir, the Tanshi Road can also be built into an asphalt road. However, when the weather is hot, the asphalt road will melt." Yan Deqing said, "The Tanshi Road is mainly made of three-combined soil. The three-combined soil is qualified by one, two and four, that is, one part Qingzhou mud, two parts clean sand, and four parts hard white stone. This road is the most durable."
"But it can only bear twelve tons of load?" Yang Rui shook his head, very dissatisfied with the current road construction technology.
"Yes, sir. There are no more than 12 tons of cars at home and abroad yet, so we..." Yan Deqing said.
"That's just not for the time being, not for the future." Yang Rui thought of the container logistics system, shipping and railway he had designed painstakingly, which had already taken containers into consideration when designing the containers, and could not be destroyed by the highway. He emphasized: "Now the Ministry of Industry has developed a large transport truck with a load of ten tons. There will be a truck with a load of twenty tons in ten years. With the weight of the truck, the whole vehicle should be close to forty tons. In addition, the kilometer height limit, the vehicle height plus the goods, at least three meters and five or six meters. These must be noted when designing the highway."
It's okay to have a height, but the weight of the car is actually forty tons. The officials of the transportation department, including Sheng Xuanhuai, were stunned. If it weren't for the words Yang Rui said, they wouldn't believe why the heavy car was so heavy, and it was almost caught on the train. In amazement, Sheng Xuanhuai said: "Prime Minister, can a car really be twenty tons in ten years?"
Chapter completed!