"First, I speculate that the Mongols' offense in Sichuan will not go too smoothly this time. Mengge may die in Sichuan. The general time should be after the summer next year."

"Secondly, after Mongke's death, there will be chaos in Mongolia due to the battle for the Khan throne, which will last about three to five years, and Kublai Khan will eventually win."

"Third, the Song Dynasty will win a brief victory in this war because of Mengge's death, and will also have a three to five-year respite. I hope the court can come up with countermeasures, because the next time the Mongols come back will be the last battle to the death. Just like Dali in the past, the will of heaven can never appear again, and this is the only opportunity for the Song Dynasty to cheer up."

"Are you really so sure that Brother Meng will die this time?" After Zhao Qi finished speaking, Wu Qian looked at Zhao Qi in confusion, because Zhao Qi's so-called inference was almost based on the death of Brother Meng.

"If Mengge does not die, the Song Dynasty will die. Choose one of these two. I naturally hope Mengge will die first. Zhuge Liang made a brilliant plan during the Three Kingdoms period, but in fact, all his elusive calculations were calculated based on his familiarity with astronomy, geography and humanistic history. Longzhong analyzed the overall situation of the world, and he found a way for Liu Bei to dominate the world, especially the Battle of Red Cliff. It was both plotting and heavenly will. It was a calculation to attack Cao's army with the east wind fire. However, the plague broke out in Cao's army. Cao's army was all soldiers from the north, not familiar with water wars or the climate in the south of the Yangtze River. Therefore, under the attack of the Sun-Liu coalition and the panic caused by the plague, Cao's army was defeated. If Cao Cao had not been ordered to escape from Huarong Road, the situation of the three kingdoms would be a different matter."

"Mengge is just like Cao Cao back then. Although he is well prepared, he still underestimated the situation in Sichuan. The people in Shu are now hating the Mongols to the core and will only fight to the death. In addition, the Mongolian army will inevitably experience various diseases. If an uncontrollable plague forms, the 100,000 army will inevitably fall into panic. Mengge does not know the tactics of war and insists on attacking Sichuan. This is one of the biggest mistakes he made!"

"If you conquer Sichuan, they can control the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, station troops in Bashu Yiling, and then continue to attack Jinghu. How can this be considered a mistake?" Wu Qian asked in confusion.

"Duke Chongguo can tell why Zhuge Liang suggested that Liu Bei first occupy Jingzhou and then occupy Bashu to achieve the king's career?" Zhao Qi asked back.

"Of course, it is easy to defend and difficult to attack in the fertile fields of Bashu for thousands of miles..."

Wu Qian was stunned before he finished speaking.

"So, this is the mistake of the Mongols. Bashu can only slowly and never attempt to fight. Twenty years ago, the Mongols attacked Sichuan. At that time, the war in the western Mongolians were in full swing, and there was no extra strength or ambition to annex our Song Dynasty. Therefore, although the Chengdu Prefecture was burned, killed and looted, nine out of ten rooms were empty, they were also stubbornly blocked by the military and civilians in Shu and suffered heavy losses. In the end, they had to retreat and plot against Dali. This time, Mengge did not learn from the lessons of the last time."

"The road to Shu is difficult, it is harder than to reach the sky... This is not a joke. If a hundred thousand troops enter Shu, the food, supplies, and the army, horses and weapons are almost impossible to replenish. Moreover, they cannot use all the cannons they can attack in the West, so they can only attack with their men and horses. When Yu Jie learned about Chongqing Prefecture, he built countless stone stone villages along the mountains and rivers. As long as the generals of Bashu were not stupid, they would definitely rely on these stone stone villages to block the Mongols. As long as it took a year or two, and the disease caused by the local environment was not suitable for the land, the Mongolian people would be depressed. If Mengge died, this well-prepared war would end in vain, and Mongolia would also fall into civil strife for the Khan throne."

"If I were Meng Ge, I would definitely not attack Shu, but led 100,000 elite troops to attack Xiangyang. If Xiangyang was broken, then there would be no danger to defend the Jingxiang Plain and could only give in, and then control the sweat to cut off the Yangtze River. In that way, Sichuan would become an enclave. After the Song Dynasty returned, Sichuan would naturally be able to get it!"

"So no matter when, Xiangyang is the top priority for the Song Dynasty to defend against the Mongols. Duke Chongguo, I said this, just hope that you must bring up this matter and make the emperor extremely alert. You must strengthen the defense and material reserves on the front line of Jingxiang. All localities must reserve the military and civilians in the city for eight years and ten years. All military equipment, food, grass, gunpowder, cannons and stones are all ready. No matter what happens in the future, we must strive to ensure that Xiangyang will not be lost. As long as Xiangyang does not be lost, our Song Dynasty will still have a glimmer of hope after all!"

"Although I think that if you speculate that Mengge would die in Sichuan is not very credible, Jingxiang has always been the focus of our defense. The city that has been built is high and deep, I think there will be no mistakes. But since you say it, I will naturally remind you clearly when I write a letter. After all, it is a major military and national affairs, so be careful!" Wu Qian nodded.

"Thank you, Duke Chongguo!" Zhao Qi saluted respectfully.

"Why do you have to thank me? It's up to me to thank you. Defending enemies is a matter for the court. Although I am not in the court now, I am still a first-class Duke of the dynasty. Both the country and the people need to take responsibility. Only you are an ordinary rural boy who only needs to farm, business and support your family!" Wu Qian waved his hand and said.

"Every man is responsible for the rise and fall of the world. Although the boy has no body and no courage to fight, the Song Dynasty is the motherland of all our Song people. If you can do your best, you naturally don't want to fall behind. Now the court has known the news that Mengge entered Sichuan, and will inevitably respond. As long as my speculation is good, the crisis in Sichuan will be lifted next year. However, I am worried that Mongolia's next invasion will inevitably change, and Jingxiang will be under great pressure!"

"This matter is too far away. The court must first resolve the current crisis. After hearing that you have said so much, I have some ideas in my heart. Go and go. When there is new news in the court, I will arrange for someone to send you letters. Of course, if you have free time, you can often come to my house to chat. My granddaughter Yuechan is about the same age as you, and young people want to come to me with more topics!"

"Yes, Duke Chong is busy, boy is leaving!"

After Zhao Qi saluted, he walked out of the study room, then looked at the direction of the pond with a strange expression, but did not see the playful girl and maid. Instead, he heard the sound of playing the piano and singing in the shade of the trees. The singing was clear and silence, adding a sense of tranquility and tranquility to this hot summer afternoon.

Zhao Qi was still generally clear about the Mongols' military operation, and it was basically overwhelmed.

Moreover, Mengge's death will cause civil strife in Mongolia and disrupt the war situation in the West.

After Hulagu occupied Syria, he prepared to continue his expedition to attack the Balkans, but after learning that Mongke was dead, he began to withdraw his troops, leaving only the general Qini Buhua to lead more than 10,000 people to guard Syria. Shortly after, the Egyptians launched an attack on the Mongols. Not long after, Qini Buhua was killed, and the Mongolian army was almost wiped out. After that, Mongolia no longer had the ability to continue the expedition to the west. The situation in the West stabilized. The Mongolian Empire was divided into four, forming a world pattern during the post-Mongol Empire period. Kublai Khan, who ascended the throne of Khan, also focused on the Southern Song Dynasty, preparing to annex the last regime of the Han people.

Although Zhao Qi knew these historical trends, he could not tell Wu Qian that Brother Meng would die in Diaoyu City. After all, this is still a year later, and no one would believe it.

However, a large-scale military operation of the Mongols attacked Sichuan by 100,000 troops, never happened since the Three Kingdoms. Moreover, since Sichuan was fully incorporated into the Chinese territory, it has always been the richest and most prosperous area in China. Even after the Tang Dynasty, especially the Anshi Rebellion, the Emperor of the Tang Dynasty would run towards Sichuan because this place was too stable and rich, and there was nowhere to be compared in the world. A group of people hiding in it was safe.

However, Sichuan, a country rich in the world, was finally completely destroyed in the hands of the Song Dynasty. The Mongols invaded twice and almost killed all the people in Shu. It was a completely genocide. After the Battle of the Mongolian and Song Dynasty, Sichuan was finally completely destroyed and had not recovered its vitality for hundreds of years. After finally accumulating and regaining a little popularity in the late Ming Dynasty, the Qing Dynasty and the Southern Ming army once again fought a long tug-of-war in Sichuan. Then they experienced the Three Feudal Rebellion and Sichuan was slaughtered again, which led to the later Huguang filling Sichuan. Sichuan, which was extremely rich, finally became a poor and backward place. Although the Bashu culture has been difficult to maintain during the extinction again and again, it can no longer restore its former style and become a poor and backward area.

Sichuan is actually in a terrible situation.

However, the corrupt court of the Southern Song Dynasty could no longer protect her safety, so she could only let her go. Since Yu Jie's death, Sichuan can be said to be in a situation that relies entirely on local military and civilian autonomy. Thanks to the bravery and patriotic enthusiasm of the military and civilians in Shu, he has been able to hold on.

According to historical records in later generations, although Yu Jie died of depression, the subsequent military deployment and strategy officials he left behind were still better adhered to. Over the past ten years, hundreds of Shicheng Shizhai were built around Chongqing, large and small, with the water beside the mountains and rivers, and the local military and civilians all rely on these Shicheng Shizhai to carry out farming and commercial activities. When encountering the enemy situation, they hid in Shizhai to resist. As soon as the enemy retreated, they came out to farm.

Mengge's personal expedition was blocked by this kind of solid walls and solid stone fortress, and soon fell into a difficult situation, especially Diaoyu City. After the construction of the Sichuan appeasement envoy Peng Daya, Yu Jie entered Sichuan to strengthen and expand again, directly operating this mountain city like a copper wall. This stone city eventually blocked the Mongolian army's attempt to open the southwest gate of the Song Dynasty. Mengge died here, leaving more than ten years of opportunity to survive for the crumbling Southern Song court.

If the Southern Song Dynasty had learned the lessons of the demise of Dali, and after the Mongolian retreated, they could have made great efforts to defend the deep front of the Jianghuai line and carry out active resistance policies, they might not die so quickly.
Chapter completed!