Chapter 573 Negotiations (1)
Next, Witt responded one by one to the negotiation conditions proposed by the East China government, determining which conditions were acceptable to Russia, those that were accepted by conditions, and those that needed to be negotiated again, and the request for reimbursement was directly rejected. And they all explained the reasons for Russia, and it took more than two hours to say it.
After the response was completed, Witt arranged the order of negotiations on various conditions, and put the conditions that were not very controversial between the two sides first and the conditions with greater differences were discussed later. This was also the usual mode of negotiations, so the East China government did not refuse. The negotiations of the day ended at this time. Witt was basically alone in the whole afternoon, but the real gambling had not begun.
The next day was the negotiations between the East China government and Japan. The process was similar to that of Russia. It was mainly because both sides understood each other's requirements and then determined the order of negotiations. There were not many substantive contents.
On the third day, the East China government will be held by bye and negotiated by Japan and Russia. In this way, the first round of the trilateral talks will end.
Although this round of negotiations did not achieve any results, the negotiation process was on the right track, so President Roosevelt finally breathed a sigh of relief. Although he did not have any confidence in the outcome of the talks, at least if the negotiations continued at this pace, it would not become a farce, and he and the United States could save face.
At this moment, Roosevelt also received the [Assessment Report on the Far East War after Britain and France joined the war] jointly compiled by the U.S. Department of the Army and the Admiralty.
During this period, the U.S. Army and Navy jointly conducted two wargame deductions on the development of the Far East War after Britain and France joined the war. The first time was after the British-French joint fleet arrived in East Asia, the East China government dispatched a fleet to fight with the British-French joint fleet at sea. As a result, the East China government's fleet was defeated and suffered heavy casualties, thus losing control of the sea. After the East China government fleet blocked the Tsuma Strait, Japan took advantage of the situation to increase troops on the Korean Peninsula. With the support of the firepower of the British-French joint fleet, it broke through the Yalu River defense line of the People's Army and broke into the Liaodong Peninsula again. At the same time, Russia received a large amount of economic assistance from France, stabilized the domestic situation, and increased its troops to the Far East, recaptured Harbin in one fell swoop, and then attacked east along the Binzhou Line and Binsui Line of the Central East Railway.
The 300,000 Russian troops stationed in Shenyang supported and supported the inside, while the People's Army's shipping was cut off by the British-French joint fleet, and the army was not replenished, and the whole line was defeated, and the Northeast was lost. Both Japanese and Russian armies achieved major results. In the end, Japan occupied Shenyang, Liaoyang, Lushun, and the Russian troops occupied Harbin and Changchun, and regained Vladivostok. Then, Japan and Russia formed a coalition force, and with the support of the British-French joint fleet, launched landing operations on the Shandong Peninsula. However, the People's Army defended the beachhead and defeated the British-French joint fleet with shore defense firepower, defeating the Japanese-Russian landing operations. The war ended, which took 3-4 months.
The second wargame deduction was that after the British-French joint fleet arrived in East Asia, the East China government did not dispatch the fleet and the British-French joint fleet to engage in a decisive battle at sea, but also dispersed the fleet, retreated to the port, and fought with the British-French joint fleet based on the shore defense fort. As a result, although the East China government's fleet was suppressed by the British-French joint fleet, the main force was preserved. Not only did it defend the maritime transportation line from Yantai to Lushun, but it could also send a fleet to attack from time to time, and did not completely lose its control of the sea.
In this case, Japan's increase in troops to the Korean Peninsula was not very smooth; and the People's Army could still get logistic support from Shandong, so the Japanese attack on the Yalu River defense line was not smooth. The two sides were stalemate for more than two months, but still remained stalemate; and on another front, the Russian army, which launched a counterattack to the People's Army, went smoothly due to the support of the Russian army in Shenyang, and finally recovered Vladivostok, and then went south to assist the Japanese army in fighting. In this case, the People's Army abandoned the Yalu River defense line and retreated completely to Liaodong, blocking the attack of the Japanese and Russian coalition forces. The Japanese army launched a landing battle in Lushun, but was defeated by the People's Army and ended for 4-5 months. In the end, the People's Army saved Liaoyang, Lushun, and the Russian army occupied Harbin and Changchun, and captured Vladivostok again; the Japanese army occupied the areas along the Yalu River.
Both war chess deductions ended with the failure of the East China government. The two major points of victory were mainly two. One is the advantage of the British-French joint fleet. The US military believes that the British-French joint fleet has an absolute advantage over the People's Army Navy. Even if the East China government adopts the tactic of avoiding war and retreating, it is obviously at a disadvantage. It can only guarantee its own shipping line and is unable to pose a major threat to the Japanese shipping; the other is that the 300,000 Russian troops stationed in Chenyang. Although the Russian army was trapped in Shenyang for more than 7 months during the war chess deduction, the US military believes that this Russian army still has considerable combat effectiveness and can still pose a major threat to the East China government with external support.
Of course, just these two wargame deductions are not enough to confirm that the East China government will definitely lose. The US military plans to conduct at least 5 wargame deductions to achieve more accurate results. After all, after Britain and France participated in the war, the situation on the battlefield became extremely complex and there were too many variables. Every change could affect the final result. For example, once the negotiations broke down, the East China government is likely to first break through Chenyang and annihilate the Russian army stationed in Chenyang before the British and French fleet arrived in the Far East, and eliminate this hidden danger. In this way, the final result will be very different from the second wargame deduction. However, this was originally a prerequisite for the third wargame deduction planned by the US military.
Another major external factor is the attitude of the Qing court. Although the Qing court's military strength was not strong, it was a legal government recognized by countries around the world and still had a great influence in China. Therefore, if the Qing court also joined the British, French, Japanese and Russian coalition forces, it would pose a major threat to the East China government. However, the Qing court was not a tough government and may not dare to join the war easily before the situation of the war was clear. However, Britain and France would definitely try their best to influence the Qing court and persuade the Qing court to join the British, French, Japanese and Russian coalition forces at the beginning of the war. In this way, the variables were quite large. The 4th and 5th military chess plan of the US military was based on the prerequisite for the Qing court to participate in the war.
However, Roosevelt gave the military too little time and only completed two war chess deductions. The conclusions drawn are not worth much reference, but the US military also gave three main factors that influenced the war: 1 is the strength of the British and French joint fleet, 2 is the 300,000 Russian troops stationed in Chenyang, and 3 is the attitude of the Qing court.
Although this report did not give a clear conclusion, Roosevelt was quite satisfied. After all, he gave the military so much time, and the results of wargame deduction can only be used as a reference, and it is not necessarily the final result. Otherwise, don’t fight in the future and play wargame deduction directly. However, from this report, Roosevelt could at least conclude that even if Britain and France participate in the war, the East China government will not have no chance at all. As long as the tactics are appropriate, it will not be without the capital to deal with it. From this point of view, the United States is not suitable to take sides before the result of the war is clear. Then in the subsequent negotiations, the United States should still maintain a neutral position and cannot be obviously frank about one side.
Just as the United States was deducing and evaluating the direction of the Far East War after Britain and France joined the war, the East China government was also discussing the gains of the negotiations. Although the negotiations were still going on at this time and it was basically determined that success was impossible, the East China government still believed that the gains of this negotiations were huge because it obtained a large amount of information from other time travelers. This made the East China government make a major breakthrough in the intelligence work of other time travelers. Although the authenticity of these information still needs to be identified and verified, at least there is a direction for breakthroughs. From this point of view, it is a huge victory. The East China government naturally has to discuss this and also discuss the action plan after the breakdown of the negotiations.
Xia Bohai first said: "Minister of Commerce, how credible do you think the information provided by Li Sanjie is? "
Minister of Security Shang Qisong said: "The most taboo thing in intelligence work is to judge the authenticity of a certain information without sufficient evidence. However, I personally think that part of these information must be true. As for which part, we must investigate and verify it slowly. However, there is finally a direction for investigation and no longer has no goals at all. Therefore, if we follow this clue to investigate, we will definitely have a substantial breakthrough." After a pause, Shang Qisong said: "I am not interfering in the government's resolution, but if we choose to cooperate with Anderson, we should be able to take out more useful information from him. Therefore, I hope the government can fully consider this when making a decision."
Qin Zheng also said: "The credibility of professionals in doing professional things and dividing these information is still the responsibility of the Minister of Commerce. No matter how much we discuss, we cannot come up with any useful conclusions. Therefore, I think it is better to discuss whether to cooperate with Anderson, which is more pragmatic."
Xia Bohai also nodded and said, "Old Qin makes sense, what do you think?"
Xu Jichao said: "I think it doesn't matter if I just have a general cooperation with Anderson. After all, this is also beneficial to us, but we should be cautious in our cooperation in depth, because I don't think Anderson can trust it."
Qin Zheng said: "We cooperate with Anderson, and it doesn't matter whether we can trust him. If we say that Yuan Shikai cannot trust him, but aren't we still working with him?"
Xu Jichao said: "But Yuan Shikai and Anderson are different. Anderson is a time traveler, knows us well, and is also an agent of the CIA."
Chapter completed!