Chapter 780 The focus of time

The charm of economics comes from its multidimensionality and uncertainty!

There are many factors that affect economic trends, and sometimes even the same situation can lead to completely opposite results.

For example, the old saying "Antiques in prosperous times are gold in troubled times", this sentence has a hint of economic "value hedging". When troubled times come, the prices of daily necessities soar, which is a manifestation of inflation.

When inflation is serious, the price of gold will also rise, which is bullish for gold, which seems inevitable. But inflation will also bring negative effects on gold at the same time.

The internal logic is also very simple: if the inflation rate rises, the central bank of the country will most likely raise interest rates to put a brake on the overheated economy in order to curb inflation. And raising interest rates will bring benefits to the bond market.

, just like right now, the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond interest rate has soared to 13%, and a lot of money has poured into the bond market, especially the Treasury market. So, what about gold?

In addition to treasury bonds can be used as a value hedging product for people to buy treasury bonds to combat the decline in currency value under high inflation. Can houses also be used as a hedging asset for investment?

If all the money has gone to the bond market and property market, what else will be left of gold besides "meow meow meow"?

Following this logic, Carter looked back at the "Plaza Accord".

As a witness to all this, or in other words, the person who reacted the fastest and sensed the coming of the shocking bubble, Carter suddenly felt that the historical records were still a bit too pale.

For Japan, which is extremely dependent on external demand, in the face of political pressure from the United States, the Bank of Japan does not turn on the money printing press, which means that the growth rate of the entire Japanese industrial output will be interrupted. And once it starts printing money,

machine, which will lead to almost inevitable inflation

As low-lying areas in the flow of money, the property market and stock market.

"Julie, Jim, I just thought of a question. You said that under the pressure of the appreciation of the yen, the Bank of Japan may print a large amount of money to lower the value of the yen. It seems that the price should only become higher, but

The actual value should still tend to be stable. In other words, in terms of exchange rate, it should be almost the same as now. I understand!"

Carter smiled bitterly and shook his head.

I found that I was a little bit involved.

The current situation is that if the Bank of Japan does not issue additional currency, the Japanese dollar exchange rate will inevitably fluctuate significantly. Just like before and after the Plaza Accord, only about 240,250 yen can be exchanged for 1 U.S. dollar, which has become about 120 yen for 1 U.S. dollar.

As for the issuance of additional currency, it only maintains the current exchange rate of about 240:1. But the number of Japanese yen currencies in circulation has increased!

As the largest market country for Japanese products, the United States. Japanese products sold in the U.S. market must be priced in U.S. dollars, and the prices received are also U.S. dollars. If the exchange rate remains unchanged, it means that the Japanese yen needed by the United States will not matter.

Whether it is outflow or inflow, there is no change from before.

So those extra yen

"I seem to understand why Tokyo's housing prices have started to rise this year!"

The United States does not need those extra yen. Generally speaking, in the Japanese consumer market, the transmission effect of the daily consumer goods market that involves residents' daily lives is often the slowest.

When the prices of daily consumer goods do not increase, so many yen will not be used in the market. Then, these extra currencies can only go to the property market and stock market!

"Oh? Housing prices in Tokyo have started to rise?"

The emergence of this new information immediately attracted the attention of everyone present.

After all, as a young rich man, it is normal to buy some houses, villas, etc. around the world and take vacations.

Not to mention that these people are all extremely smart, but they are not stupid either!

As soon as I heard Carter mention the time when land prices rose in Japan, I immediately grasped the crux of the problem!

Caterpillar's "Morgan Report" was released in September, officially attacking Japanese companies and pointing out that the exchange rate was unreasonable. It was also at this time.

"Hahaha, then you kid wants to send it off!"

Julian could understand the situation that Carter almost got himself into. After all, he was just a kid who had not graduated. Being able to think more divergently was actually an advantage.

But house prices in Tokyo are rising

“When did it start rising?”

Taking out the increasingly rare cigarette and lighting it, Carter frowned slightly. This situation seemed a little strange again.

"I arrived in Japan at the end of June this year, probably around June 25th. I stayed there for four or five days. When I arrived in Japan, I happened to see a long queue outside some sales offices in Tokyo.

The scene. I was happy at the time because I own a lot of real estate in Tokyo."

He joked to Carter with a smile, but no one paid attention to it.

"I didn't pay much attention to it."

Ordinary people may think it's a lot, but these people here don't look down upon them.

Compared to this, their attention is more in another direction:

"Is there any movement from the Japanese government around that time?"

"It will be during this summer vacation, around June but maybe in May, or even earlier?"

Listening to the discussion in his ears, Carter's mind was spinning rapidly.

"Is it related to the demands of this current Japanese government? I heard some friends from the Asian Chamber of Commerce mentioned that the Japanese Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone who took office last year was more radical."

Although whether it is the appreciation of the yen or the large amount of yen currency flowing into the property market, it is absolutely good news for Carter's investment!

But in their view, the "quite a lot" Carter mentioned were just a few houses.

How much money can you make with just a few properties?

And the so-called inside information

Yes, sitting next to Rick, the grandson of a "Republican gentleman", Carter did have some inside information: Brother Genzi suddenly made a period of blank time in his work schedule in November.

In addition, in October, current U.S. Treasury Secretary Ronald Reagan (same surname, correct spelling) added a telephone conversation with Japanese Minister of Finance Noboru Takeshita to his work schedule

These two work arrangements were not originally included in the work plan. They were suddenly added to the schedule at the end of September or early October when the schedule for the next month was needed.

Combined with Caterpillar’s ​​high-profile topic, which has caused a large number of American companies to voice their support? Or is it a rhetoric?

Carter didn't know how to describe Caterpillar's denunciation this time, but after summarizing these pieces of information,

I really can’t blame myself for speculating!!

Putting these thoughts aside for the time being, Carter quietly listened to the information coming from others. At this time, it was Jim's turn to speak:

"I heard from a friend who works at the United Nations that since last year, the Japanese representatives have changed from the previous 3S style and become very proactive. I think this should also be the influence of Japan's new prime minister."
Chapter completed!