Chapter 39 The sudden interest rate hike
Judging from the attitude of French President Jacques, he gave Zhou Ming a very good start. However, when Zhou Ming arrived at the Triumph Building and met Joros, he had to sigh at what it means to rely on good and bad luck. He was still a little too happy.
Originally, according to the normal habits of the students in the finance class, they must have come out to greet Zhou Ming when he came back, but this time when Zhou Ming got off at the entrance of the Triumph Building, only Ye Ning and Li Yang were waiting here, and they were frowning, looking very anxious. It seemed that something unexpected happened.
The teacher is not good, the situation in Mexico has changed. Joros and other students are operating quantum funds and transferring other funds, so we are the only one here to welcome you as representatives. We are very sorry for this.
Ye Ning ran up and apologized directly to Zhou Ming. Zhou Ming was both unexpected and expected for her apology. After all, it was only the case for Mexico to make them so anxious. But the problem is that Zhou Ming remembers that Mexico's economic crisis started in 1994. Before that, although the Mexican economy did not progress all the way, at least nothing happened.
Faced with Zhou Ming's doubts, Ye Ning said to him: Teacher, I can't explain to you clearly what it is. In short, it is very complicated. Mr. Joros also wants to ask you to go up first before making a decision.
Li Yang also echoed Ye Ning and said: Yes, teacher. Mr. Joros said that the situation this time was very strange, but one thing is certain, that is, the situation in Mexico will become more complicated.
Zhou Ming knew that the two of them would not make such jokes for him, so he followed them upstairs. Soon they came to the office where Joros rented it. When they walked into the office, Zhou Ming saw a row of computers and phones. The students in the financial class were sitting in front of the computers, typing on the keyboard and making phone calls, which made the whole office feel a tense atmosphere.
In such an atmosphere, Zhou Ming was also light-hearted, but he still saw the sharp-eyed students in front of him.
Before they could say hello to him, Zhou Ming first compared them with a silence move and told them in a low voice that he would go to Joros first to figure out what happened before saying it; then a few minutes later, Zhou Ming and Caitlin came to Joros's office inside.
Joros jumped up to greet Zhou Ming when he came back happily: Mr. Zhou Ming, you are finally back. This is really great. Those French guys are really idiots, and they almost missed our big deal.
Since some things have passed, it’s all right. Zhou Ming waved his hand and said, but compared to this, I want to know more about what happened in Mexico, which will make you Joros so nervous.
Joros was stunned at first, then shook his head and replied: It was not what happened in Mexico, but the Federal Reserve. Just half an hour ago, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the federal funds rate by fifteen basis points, which is 0.15%.
What Joe Ross said seemed very complicated, but Zhou Ming understood it at the first time. In short, it was the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.
The rate hike is 0.15%, which sounds like a very small number, but in fact this is already a very high rate hike.
After all, the Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States and is responsible for the regulation of the entire US financial and monetary market. Even its interest rate hikes can affect the whole world. In this way, its interest rate hike measures must be extremely cautious. If it inexplicably increases or decreases by one or even two percentage points, it will be a huge financial turmoil for both the United States and the whole world.
Zhou Ming and Joe Ross are both engaged in finance, so they naturally understand the significance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. To put it bluntly, this is to increase the borrowing costs of commercial banks and force commercial banks to raise interest rates together, and finally achieve the purpose of encouraging deposits and curbing economic overheating and speculative behavior.
Now, the Fed's interest rate hike measures will obviously have a huge impact on Mexico.
Since Mexico is implementing a policy of keeping a close eye on the dollar, the Federal Reserve's sudden announcement of interest rate hikes will inevitably bring huge depreciation pressure to the Mexican peso. Joros told Zhou Ming.
Zhou Ming nodded in agreement with Joros' judgment. After all, they had discussed the situation in Mexico at the beginning. In their judgment, if Mexico has a financial crisis in the future, it will be during a certain rate hike of the Federal Reserve. So Zhou Ming asked him: Joros, do you think the Mexican peso will depreciate early?
Joros shook his head and said: If it were in the past, Mr. Zhou Ming, I would definitely tell you that it would not be possible, but now, I really don’t dare to draw this conclusion, because the Fed’s interest rate hike this time is a bit strange. Although the Fed’s reason for hikes is to regulate the overheated real estate market, in my calculations, the current speculation level of the US real estate market is not as good as the Fed’s interest rate hike regulation.
Zhou Ming thought about it and said: If it is really difficult to understand, then put this question aside first. Joros, your first sentence is that you will tell me that the Mexican peso will not depreciate. What is your reason?
Because the Mexican economy is still in an upward stage, and Mexico is also a country with a high proportion of state-owned economy. Now, the interest rate hike of only 15 basis points is still a long way from the upper limit that the Mexican government can regulate and deal with. In addition, Mexico also has sufficient foreign exchange reserves. Even if the crisis breaks out now, I believe the Mexican government has the ability to solve it. Joros said.
So Joross Do you think the Fed suddenly announced a rate hike this time is to target the Mexican economy? Zhou Ming asked.
Joros shook his head: I don’t know why, I just simply think it’s strange, so I asked your classmates in the finance class to help transfer all the funds to deal with the economic crisis that may occur at any time. I’m sorry.
Zhou Ming waved his hand and told him that Mexico is the most important thing now. Zhou Ming also said: Joros, your reaction is very correct. I believe your judgment. I also believe that this sudden rate hike by the Federal Reserve will never make no sense.
At this time, Joros frowned and thought for a while and suddenly said: This happened since the UK. Mr. Zhou Ming, do you think it was the British who betrayed you?
Regarding this question, Zhou Ming thought about it carefully before shook his head and said: The British are indeed likely to betray me, but the problem is that the sudden interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve does not seem to betray me, but rather it is more like his intention to take the initiative.
Hearing Zhou Ming say this, Joros suddenly realized something, he said: Mr. Zhou Ming, do you mean that after they learned that you were going to short the Mexican peso, have they taken advantage of their relationship in the Federal Reserve first to do something with their relationship in the Federal Reserve? These damn bastards, they are really rogues with no gentlemanly demeanor at all.
Zhou Ming smiled and said to him: Joros, don't scold them for now. After all, you said that the Mexican economy is still in an upward period and it is not so easy to collapse, right? So now they have to take the initiative and let them try the water first. After they try out the depth of Mexico, it will be fine if we enter the market.
Joros happily applauded Zhou Ming: Mr. Zhou Ming, you are so smart, right, let those idiots who don’t know how to be a pioneer for us, we will wait until the best time to sell it.
Since that's the case, we don't have to worry at all. We should collect more short-term bonds in Mexico than this. I remember you told me before that once the Mexican economy starts to collapse, these short-term bonds will be the easiest place to create chaos, right? Zhou Ming asked.
Joros nodded quickly and replied: Mr. Zhou Ming, please rest assured that nearly half of the funds I have transferred to Mexico now will be used to buy these short-term bonds in Mexico, and I will invest some of the other ones in the Mexican stock market.
This idea is correct, but the situation in Mexico will be different from that in Britain and France. Financial powers like Britain and France are much stronger in dealing with currency devaluation, so currency devaluation will drive their stock market growth, but the Mexican stock market may also fall with their currency. Zhou Ming said, and in addition to the Mexican stock market, I think that once Mexico's economy collapses, it will cause a bigger financial storm in the entire Latin America.
Joros said happily: I think it is the butterfly effect in the financial world, but our current butterfly wings are scraping from Mexico to the south.
At the same time, in Buckingham Palace in London, Queen Elisabeth was listening to the report of her son Prince of Wales.
Dear Mother, although the Federal Reserve has cooperated with us to announce the interest rate hike, the Mexican government will use foreign exchange reserves to change the term of the Federal Reserve to depreciate the depreciation pressure brought by the interest rate hike, so this time there will be no effect. The old housekeeper said.
Listening to this, Elizabeth sighed and said: It seems that we are still too reckless. Although it is just Mexico, it is still a bit difficult to eat it completely independently.
Then Elisabe thought about it and said: Then, please call Mr. Zhou Ming next.
The Prince of Wales was surprised by this: Is it my mother ready to give up? According to the analysis of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Mexico's current economic situation just looks good. If the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, unless Mexico gives up its policy of keeping a close eye on the dollar, it will definitely not withstand the pressure of depreciation. Once Mexico gives up its policy of keeping a close eye on the dollar, it will also lead to a significant depreciation of the peso.
Elisabeth still waved his hand and said: My child, you have to understand that what you said is not important, but the problem is that we don’t need to do this, unless you don’t know what Zhou Ming did in France.
The Prince of Wales was stunned for a moment and asked in a bit incredible question: Mother, do you mean that French people will also participate?
Chapter completed!