In recent years, funds from overseas have shown a trend of short-term hot money, which has become increasingly difficult to control. Moreover, a large amount of foreign capital has poured into the real estate market and stock market, significantly pushing up real estate prices and stock prices, and asset price bubbles have become very obvious.

From 1993 to 1996, real estate prices in Siam increased by nearly 400%, and the SET index reached a record high of 1410.33 in January 1996.

Since then, real estate and the stock market have turned into decline, which has put tremendous pressure on bank assets. According to a survey commissioned by a professional organization, Siam Commercial Bank's non-performing assets reached 1.78 trillion baht in June 1996, with the non-performing asset rate as high as 35.8%.

.

Thinking of this, an indescribable weirdness flashed across Zhu Changhong's eyes.

To be honest, if Fang Chen hadn't suggested that there was a huge bubble in Siam's economy, he wouldn't have investigated it, let alone know the data.

But here comes the problem. He only knew these data after investigation, and how did Fang Chen determine that there was something wrong with Siam's economy?

He thought about this question for two months, but finally didn't get any answer and had to give up.

But there is no answer, and there is nothing surprising. In the eyes of most people in Qingtian, their boss has already been born with knowledge, almost omniscient and omnipotent.

And over the years, haven't there been many miracles that happened to Fang Chen that ordinary people can't even understand?

In addition to these real estate and stock market problems, Siam's most dependent foreign trade has also encountered considerable difficulties.

The U.S. dollar has entered an appreciation channel since 1995. Since the Thai baht is pegged to the U.S. dollar, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar has caused the Thai baht exchange rate to continue to rise, causing a setback in Siam's exports and a slowdown in economic growth, which is almost 3% lower than last year.

All this proves that bad things will happen in Siam.

"But at this moment, the Siamese government is in a dilemma, because their policy choices are tied by the fixed exchange rate system. To promote economic growth, Siam needs to implement expansionary monetary policy, control inflation, and make up for the current account deficit.

You need to raise interest rates, and generally speaking, these two measures are usually at odds!"

At this time, standing at the White Swan Hotel in Yangcheng, Soros said sarcastically to his trading manager, Hewlett.

In his view, the Siamese government, which is so timid and timid, is simply asking for death and is synonymous with failure.

Well, that's right, Soros also came to China with his trading team, and even for the smooth implementation of the plan, he had quietly stayed at the White Swan Hotel more than two months ago.

And as far as he knew, people from Citigroup and Morgan also appeared in Yangcheng.

No way, the Chinese auxiliary root server is really taking advantage of transactions in Asian countries.

In addition, Soros also has some little thoughts that are not common to outsiders.

That was before, when he was sniping against the pound, Fang Chen, a bastard, actually arranged his trading team on the roof of his building to watch his every move every day.

And although he didn't dare to run to Yanjing, let alone stay in the same building with Fang Chen, after all, Fang Chen was too powerful in China, and China's investigation of foreigners was also surprisingly high.

It's not like he was treated as an American spy and published in Chinese newspapers.

But running to Lingnan and making Fang Chen feel sick is still okay.

Moreover, he had noticed through the Jewish control of the world banking system that Fang Chen had begun to carry out close large-scale fund mobilization half a year ago.

Looking at this time point and Fang Chen's capital mobilization trends, if nothing unexpected happens, Fang Chen should be eyeing Siam just like him.

He didn't find anything strange about this.

After all, in his opinion, Fang Chen was a financial genius on the same level as him. Otherwise, Fang Chen would not have made the same choice as him back then, to use a knife on the head of the booming British pound.

And the most hateful thing is that the outside world thinks that he is the culprit and the biggest beneficiary of the sharp decline in the pound exchange rate.

But what about actually?

Perhaps he fired the first shot against the pound, but the biggest profiteer was not him, but Fang Chen.

He admitted that Quantum Fund made a lot of money from that incident, but the money he could get was only the part he used his own funds and the commissions given by his clients.

After all, he can get one-third of all profits, which is just over 600 million US dollars.

But what about this bastard Fang Chen?

He made a profit of more than 1.3 billion U.S. dollars, twice his amount!

The result is great. The shit basin is still on his head. The hypocritical guys in the UK who call themselves gentlemen have been forcing Lai Lai to do so, hoping that the United States will agree to let him go to the UK to receive punishment.

And Fang Chen can come and go freely all over the world, and very few people even know that he is the biggest profiteer, let alone take revenge on Fang Chen.

In addition, he was defeated by Fang Chen in Russia. Not to mention that the plan was not realized, Rutskoi, who he supported, was defeated and even he himself was imprisoned and imprisoned.

To be honest, he has traveled around the world for decades and subverted countless countries, some successful and some failed, but he is the only one to be imprisoned like in Russia.

To be honest, if the Jewish people behind him were not willing to pay such a high price to save him, based on his understanding of Fang Chen, Fang Chen would definitely be able to lock him in a Russian prison.

It can be said that since the failure in Russia, he has never underestimated Fang Chen, and he does not think it is strange that Fang Chen also discovered the huge exploitable vulnerability in Siam.

After collecting his messy thoughts, Soros turned to his fund managers and Hewlett continued: "Although these two methods are contradictory, it does not mean that Siam's financial economy is really hopeless.

.However, what is ridiculous is that the Siamese government took the stupidest path and completely plunged itself into a situation of no return!"

After much thought, the Siamese government finally decided to raise interest rates in order to maintain the exchange rate pegged to the U.S. dollar because it was worried that abandoning the peg to the U.S. dollar would cause the Thai baht to depreciate, increase domestic debt burdens, cause corporate bankruptcy, unemployment among workers, and an increase in non-performing loan rates in financial institutions.

system.

At the end of 1995, the deposit interest rate and loan interest rate of Siam's domestic financial institutions reached 12% and 13.75% respectively, which was not only the highest in Asia, but also more than twice the international average level.

It can be said that Siam's high interest rate policy has further inhibited investment and consumption, aggravated the economic recession, and further worsened the non-performing assets of commercial banks, making the precarious Siamese economy even worse.

And because of long-term drinking of poison to quench thirst, at the end of 1996, Siam’s foreign debt reached US$93 billion, equivalent to 50% of GDP, of which short-term foreign debt accounted for 60%.

In this way, how could the fragile financial system, long-term deficit and high inflation not attract his attention!

“How many baht forward contracts do we have on hand now?”

"There are almost 15 billion US dollars. If it is released, it will definitely cause a earthquake in Siam's financial market and cause Siam's exchange rate to plummet!"

Hewlett said excitedly, his face even flushed with excitement.

He has been preparing for this day for half a year.

In the past six months, he has basically been like an ant moving, constantly borrowing Japanese yen from Dongbo, and then using these Japanese yen as collateral to borrow Thai baht from Siam Bank to purchase Thai baht forward contracts.

It can be said that in order not to attract the attention of Siam's financial system, the accounts he needs to operate every day can already be counted in units of ten thousand.

Of course, the tens of thousands of accounts every day are not operated by himself. There are hundreds of traders under him, but he is tired. The turnover from his hands is as high as hundreds of millions of dollars a day. If you include all the traders,

All kinds of money pouring, at least four to five billion US dollars a day.

Soros nodded slightly.

He has 15 billion US dollars of ammunition on his side, and Fang Chen estimates that it should be no less than 10 billion US dollars. If you include financial giants such as Citigroup and Morgan, the amount of funds on his side is at least five

A whopping $60 billion.

It is already almost twice the size of Siam’s foreign exchange reserves.

With so many short-selling funds, even if the Siamese government is beaten to death, they will not be able to save the Thai baht's exchange rate.

Whether the Siamese government will take action, or whether it has the ability to take action, is probably another question.

After all, in order to save the Thai baht exchange rate, it is absolutely a crazy idea to spend all the hard-earned money of tens of millions of people in Siam for so many years.

Without foreign exchange, it means that Siam cannot import anything from the international market, and with the size of a medium-sized country like Siam, it cannot be self-sufficient at all.

To put it simply, if Siam had no foreign exchange reserves, within a week, all the motor vehicles in Siam would be idle, the entire streets would be empty, and the transportation system would be completely paralyzed.

Countless goods are piled up in warehouses, countless vegetables and fruits are rotting in the fields, and the livelihood of countless people has become a problem.

Therefore, he is certain that it is impossible for Siam to spend all its foreign exchange reserves to save the Thai baht.

But it doesn't matter, Siam can borrow money.

Even if Siam is not willing, its beloved motherland, the United States, will force Siam to borrow money, borrow money from the United States and borrow money from the International Monetary Organization.

Although the two seem different, they are actually the same thing. The International Monetary Organization is based in the United States, and its president has long been held by an American or an American ally.

However, American money is not that easy to borrow, and how much money can be borrowed is one thing. There are definitely other messy conditions.

Anyway, no matter what, Siam must borrow money if it wants to borrow money, and it must borrow money if it doesn’t want to borrow money, and none of these conditions should be missing.

This is the beauty of financial empowerment.

Moreover, this killing of the Thai baht, if nothing unexpected happens, will become the most beautiful battle in his life, an unprecedented and unrepeatable battle, and it will bring out the characteristics of hedge funds to the fullest.

First of all, you must know that of the US$15 billion, only US$1.5 billion is his own principal, and the rest is amplified through various leverages.

And this kind of leverage is not as simple as paying a deposit and getting leverage from a bank.

However, the most important thing is that every time he expands his funds, he can bring himself some additional income, even if the Thai baht exchange rate does not fall that much,

As we all know, the loan exchange rate in Dongwa is less than 2%, which can be said to be the lowest interest rate in the world.

As an emerging country, Siam has an interest rate of 7% even on short-term bonds and short-term bank deposits. In other words, when it borrows money from the East and buys Siamese bonds and short-term bank deposits, it naturally has an interest rate of about 5%.

Interest rate spread.

And because he had US$1.5 billion as collateral and invested in relatively stable short-term bonds and bank deposits like Siam, the loan funds were multiplied by five times, which is US$7.5 billion.

It sounds a bit incredible.

But in fact, Dongwo Bank judged the credit and investment project risks of Quantum Fund and believed that the probability of its default was no more than 20%, and the mortgage risk was definitely less than 80%. This US$1.5 billion could completely cover all

risk.

In fact, this is equivalent to another form of acceptance.

In addition, Dongwa Bank did this to charge more interest.
To be continued...