Chapter 767 The brief calm before the storm
"Since that's the case, we will follow the instructions of the chairman to confront the main long institutions here and wait for further changes in the market situation." Chen Yuhe said, "In addition to the core bond of 715, we will continue to ignite other similar bonds with relatively high risk to continue to deepen the negative news in the market."
Su Yue nodded slightly: "This is the best!"
After getting Su Yue's full recognition, Chen Yuhe hung up the phone and looked back at the trading room again. Everyone was full of expectations. She coughed lightly and said, "Manager Cui, continue to publish information to guide the negative news and panic in the market. At the same time... Team Leader Liu, Team Leader Wu, you still have an absolute advantage while taking advantage of the bearish situation on the market. The main long organization has not organized a strong counterattack, quickly replenish long orders, recover as much funds as possible, and lock in profits."
"Also, 711, 726, 735, 742...the short positions on these bonds and futures will be filled and closed immediately."
"The negative and risk in the market have been basically digested at this moment."
"The last line of defense for the bulls, without further major negative support and continuous spread of panic, we cannot break through."
"Repair and close the position?" Liu Fangping and Wu Heng were all stunned when facing Chen Yuhe's instructions.
Chen Yuhe looked at the two of them and said, "Please execute it. The overall market situation after the change no longer supports us to continue to sell and fall."
"The best strategy is to harvest profits first, recover principal, and wait for the opportunity to come again."
"The opponents we face are not ordinary opponents, we cannot make any mistakes, and we cannot be careless. The chairman's meaning is that since the current market situation is no longer able to support us in continuing to sell, we can only take the initiative to shrink our defense line, continue to occupy the market initiative, and siege the main bulls here."
Liu Fangping and Wu Heng were talking to Chen Yuhe, although they had not fully understood the reason for doing so.
But he sat in front of the computer and conveyed the trading instructions to all traders, allowing everyone to quickly fill up positions, lock in profits, and recover their principal.
Cui Xianshi nodded slightly to Chen Yuhe and quickly implemented the instructions that Chen Yuhe had just conveyed to him.
All news channels, as well as the marketing department members in the company who are responsible for online information promotion and guidance, continue to create negative news and panic, and cooperate with the trading department's actions to close positions and replenish positions.
After Chen Yuhe issued the trading order.
Turning around and picking up the phone, he also conveyed the same trading instructions and ideas to two important allies, Huayin International and Barclays.
Before the main short-term organization really touched, the main long-term organization was set at the defense line of US$78 to US$80.
Taking advantage of the market panic, we took the lead in filling and closing positions, competing for market liquidity and opportunities, once again beyond the expectations of the main bulls.
When the main bulls realize the opponent's intention, they organize a counterattack to stop the shorts from continuing to cover and exit the market, and try hard to open the price channel upwards. In order to quickly regain the disadvantage, the main bears have stopped covering and rebuild the short defense position, and conduct another funding battle with them.
"Let's fall behind one step, step by step!"
Looking at the 715 bond futures trading market after the violent fluctuation, which fell into a narrow fluctuation range again between 83 and 84 US dollars, Bazer frowned and sighed: "Although we took the initiative to retreat, release market risks, transfer profits, and avoid the crisis of a full-scale collapse, we were completely in a passive position and were trapped here by our opponents."
"At this moment, everyone's books are losing a lot. The market confidence has also been hit hard after this. It is difficult to get back the disadvantages in the future!"
Randall said: "It is really difficult to deal with Chinese capital, and its movements are unexpected to us every time."
"but……"
Randall paused and continued: "This derivative trading market for converting bonds is a relatively closed market after all, and all risks can be controlled for us. I believe that when the market sentiment further eases, the liquidity crisis will be completely lifted."
"The market converts bonds, with a generally expected future yield of around 20%, can still attract many investors to come here."
“In essence, the current market price and discount rate of the convertible bonds.”
"It is already quite attractive compared to the stock market and other trading markets. If I were asked to choose, the risk ratio of this market to future yield has entered my investment range."
"After all, large financial institutions that issue these converting bonds have strong risk resistance and are generally difficult to have problems."
"Even if there is a problem, I think... it doesn't mean that these convertible bonds will default."
"As long as a comprehensive credit crisis does not occur, I think this market is in this position, there is no need to worry too much. After the market sentiment and liquidity stabilize, the shorts' defense line at this position will naturally collapse."
Bazel pondered for a moment, his face did not improve, and he asked, "Randall, how likely do you think is the comprehensive credit crisis?"
Randall knew that Bazel asked this, which meant that he had some concerns in his heart.
He couldn't help but say in surprise: "Mr. Bazel, you are not really worried about this, right? In my opinion, the probability of a credit crisis approaching zero, let alone a comprehensive credit crisis."
"My country is now the world's hegemony, economy, finance, and military, all of which are the best in the world."
"Under the US dollar system, through commodities and treasury bonds, all financial risks can be transferred. As long as no one defeats the US dollar system, global commodities and crude oil are still priced in US dollars. As long as the global economy does not collapse first and reaches the tragic situation during the Great Depression of World War II, we have the object of transferring the risks, and there is no comprehensive credit crisis."
"The risks advocated by Chinese investors are purely to scare people."
"Authenticed, due to the influence of 'sub-loan', various financial institutions have experienced investment losses and asset impairment in the past six months, and there have been problems such as Bear Stearns, Indymac Bank, and Elter Bank bankruptcy, but the overall risks are still controllable, and the Fed and the government are also actively remediating them."
"To now, the risk of 'sub-loan' has been released."
"Chinese capital advocates all risks, but only to cooperate with their short selling behavior. I don't think you need to pay too much attention."
Bazer thought for a long time, and finally felt that under the support of the Fed and the government, the temporary market crisis and the leverage problems of large financial institutions, the default rate and bad debt problems in mortgage loans should be resolved friendly. He couldn't help but slowly let go of the little concern in his heart.
"Before market confidence is restored, this will be a long-term volatility range."
Bazer stared at the market for a while and said, "Without major favorable support and continuous capital flowing into this market, it has become unrealistic to defeat the main bears in the short term. It can be foreseeable that the next stage will be a long confrontation."
"What a pity, I was unable to do everything in one go and seize the opportunity to defeat them at the beginning."
Randall was silent for a while and asked, "Mr. Bazer, when the market sentiment stabilizes, can we continue the previous online and offline strategies, actively purchase convertible bonds, and force futures prices to rise by trading spot prices offline?"
"No!" said Bazel, "Once, then."
"Some tricks and routines can only be used once, and it will not work if there are more."
"Not to mention that everyone's positions on the market are all large losses at this moment. In the offline market in the early trading, many of the 715 bonds that were taken over were also in a loss state. Without obvious future positive expectations, invest funds to increase their positions and carry out such a short-term positive stimulus that is difficult to succeed is tantamount to increasing the risk of holding while doing useless work. Other alliance institutions will not agree."
"What kind of fundamental favorable thing can reverse the trend?" Randall asked again.
Bazer pondered for a moment and said: "The Fed cuts interest rates significantly and continues to release liquidity in capital, so that the risk-free returns of market investment will be further reduced. With sufficient funds, you will choose investment options with relatively higher risks to achieve higher investment returns."
"That is, the Fed's sharp cut in interest rates will directly alleviate the liquidity of this market."
"This will reverse the situation of continuous outflow of capital from this market, with large amounts of capital flowing in and abundant liquidity, and the market's water level will naturally rise."
"Of course, if the problem of the 'sub-prime mortgage crisis' is completely solved, the fundamentals of the macroeconomic will turn."
"That is, housing prices have begun to bottom out and rebound, corporate operating efficiency has improved, and market demand has begun to expand again."
"Then, when converting the bond market will naturally become the target of large-scale investment and care for various capital and financial institutions, and all short sellers will naturally be destroyed."
"But... this time has to wait."
"I judge that the economy bottomed out and the subprime mortgage crisis gradually improved from the worst case scenario, and it should be coming soon."
"The Fed's interest rate cut is worth looking forward to. The economy bottoms out and rebounds. It is also foreseeable that financial institutions gradually remove leverage under the support of the Fed and the government and start a healthy journey. I believe that the time will be longer, as long as they bite the main short institutions, they will not be able to appear easily."
"The final victory will definitely belong to us."
This is not the first time that Bazer has fought with Chinese capital. Although his opponent is difficult to deal with, this time, the main battlefield is in his own country. Although he occasionally has a hint of worry in his heart, looking at the overall situation, he is still full of confidence in defeating Chinese capital.
Randall nodded, believing in this.
While the two of them were talking, trading room, and the phone ringing of other main institutions of long positions rang.
Bazer took the call and, after understanding what the other party meant, hurriedly explained his insights on the market analysis, fully convinced everyone to convert the mortgage loan to the bond market and move into the long-short stalemate stage in a timely manner, waiting for the Fed's major interest rate cut and the real bottoming rebound of the economy.
Joti Shaman, Dalik, Coven Morris, Ferry Nance... and others sighed lightly, and they all knew that at this moment, in a disadvantaged situation, it was already unrealistic to defeat the main short-selling institutions with a lot of profits. They couldn't help but remain silent for a moment and agreed to Bazer's proposal.
Therefore, both the main players of long and short forces were clearly aware that they could not completely defeat their opponents for a moment.
715 bond futures, as well as the entire mortgage conversion bond trading market, have fallen into a short-term balanced fluctuation stage with a general 20% discount rate.
However... in this short-term balance of long and short forces.
No one is idle.
The main bulls, together with the capital forces of all parties on Wall Street, are constantly releasing good news to the market, and at the same time, many well-known financial institutions have bottomed out and rebounded. The darkest "subprime mortgage crisis" moment has passed. Many economies and financial analysis reports are constantly bombing the market.
The main short-selling institutions led by Bentayga Capital are being created by various artificial benefits of Wall Street Capital.
Continuously investigate the market, mobilize risk points in various markets, constantly copy previous methods, and take advantage of the inadvertent attention of the main long institutions, short-selling liquidity, and marginal mortgage loans to convert bonds, so as to continue to dampen market confidence and trigger medium and small institutional investors who are not strong in risk resistance continue to sell these risk assets.
At this stage, the continuous outflow of capital from the mortgage derivative trading market has not been curbed.
In commodities and crude oil futures, short capital led by Su Yue, led by Chinese capital, completely curbed the counterattack of the main bulls and built a solid first line of defense for shorts.
WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures, over the next week.
We failed to cross the $140 mark, and the more the price fluctuated, the lower the price, and a clear top trend was formed from the k-line pattern.
LME copper fell from the $8,000 price again, losing an important support mark for high operation.
LME zinc and LME aluminum have also shown a clear head trend, attracting many short-selling speculators from K-line technology to follow the trend.
The short positions in commodities and oil prices have been delayed in breaking through.
In addition, the stock market is stagnant, the downward trend of housing prices has not stopped, the mortgage derivative trading market is almost collapsed, and it is cold, and capital continues to withdraw from the mortgage market. Financial institutions, investment companies, profits, and funds are further swallowed up by the assets related to "sub-loans" and investment projects. The assets of various institutions are impaired, and are everywhere at all times...
Under these factors.
The overall internal financial risks of countless financial institutions that are deeply trapped in the vortex of "subprime mortgages" have not only not weakened at all, but are increasing day by day.
Finally...time is August.
This situation of risk transfer being completely curbed by bears has caused the situation of large capitals in various departments to be unable to continue to harvest profits from oil prices and commodities and make up for internal crises and risks, which has begun to become more and more serious.
As the large capital groups of various departments saw that the internal capital chain was constantly tense, and the funds eroded by various mortgage risk assets were still expanding, and they had reached a critical moment of life and death, they could not help but join forces to use the upcoming new round of OPEC meetings to defeat the main short-selling forces headed by Chinese capital, establish a solid line of defense, and once again open up the road of risk transfer and their own survival.
Chapter completed!